Bitcoin Market Outlook After the Sharp Decline 2025-2026: Systematic Analysis and Implications

Published: Nov. 20, 2025, 2:37 a.m. UTC / Updated: Nov. 20, 2025, 3:52 a.m. UTC

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BitcoinPlunge

Executive Summary

On November 20, 2025, Bitcoin plunged to $88,522, wiping out over $1 trillion in market capitalization across the cryptocurrency market. This report provides a systematic analytical framework to help investors assess "how Bitcoin prices will evolve over the next 6 months to 1 year" following this historic decline.

Current Situation: Market capitalization has declined approximately 26% from its peak of $4.3 trillion on October 6, with Bitcoin down about 30% from its October high of $126,000. The year-to-date low of $77,424 from April is now being watched as the next critical support level.

Key Features of This Report:

Detailed analysis of the 3 major historical crashes (May 2021, June 2022, November 2022), deriving decline patterns and recovery timelines
7 turning point indicators providing objective criteria for identifying market peak exhaustion and bottom formation
US Treasury yield inverse correlation mechanism and implications of the current 10-year yield at 4.4%
Quantitative assessment of risk-on/risk-off environment with Bitcoin correlation coefficient analysis
Halving cycle analysis (April 2024 implementation), tracking time elapsed and typical price patterns
3 forecast scenarios: Optimistic (recovery to $120,000) 35%, Neutral ($95,000-105,000) 45%, Pessimistic ($65,000-75,000) 20%

Key Finding: Historical data shows that after 30-40% declines from peak, markets typically bottom out within 3-5 months on average, followed by upward reversal within 6-9 months. While the current decline falls within typical patterns, the unique 2024-2025 factor of diminishing Fed rate cut expectations may delay recovery.

Practical Value: The report specifies 8 concrete indicators (price thresholds, on-chain metrics, macroeconomic data) for investors to monitor daily and weekly, along with recommended action plans for each scenario realization. With accessible explanations comprehensible even to cryptocurrency beginners, the report systematically demystifies complex market mechanisms.

This report is not merely price prediction, but rather aims to cultivate readers' autonomous market judgment capabilities by transforming the thought process of market analysis itself into educational material.

1. Current Situation Assessment: Organization of Observed Facts

1.1 Market Conditions as of November 20, 2025

1.1.1 Quantitative Assessment of Price Movements

The Bitcoin crash on November 20, 2025, is characterized by the following specific figures:

Intraday Price Movement

Intraday low: $88,522 (lowest level in 7 months)
Psychological support levels: $85,000 → $80,000 → $77,424 (year-to-date low)
Year-to-date price range: $77,424 (April) ~ over $126,000 (peak)
Price decline magnitude: Approximately 30% correction from peak

This scale of decline delivered such a shock to the market that some market participants dubbed it the "Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025". Particularly notable is that during the same period, traditional safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold remained relatively resilient, once again highlighting that Bitcoin has not yet sufficiently established its credibility as a store of value during risk-averse market phases.

Market Capitalization Changes

Overall market peak: Approximately $4.3 trillion (October 6, 2025)
Current market capitalization: Approximately $3.2 trillion
Lost value: Approximately $1.1 trillion (approximately ¥157 trillion)
Loss rate: Approximately 25.6%

1.1.2 Structural Market Changes

Forced Liquidation Reality

Approximately $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated as of October 10
Cascading margin calls
Rapid exit of leveraged investors from the market

Direction of Capital Flows

Capital outflows from exchange-traded products (ETFs, etc.)
Notable decline in new buying demand
The majority of market cap decline represents "book valuation losses" rather than actual capital outflows

1.1.3 Relative Performance of Ethereum

The situation of Ethereum, a major cryptocurrency alongside Bitcoin, serves as an important reference indicator:

Current price: Below $3,000 again
Annual high: Approximately $5,000 (August) — slightly exceeding the 2021 high
Current status: Nearly all gains have been lost
Characteristics: Lagged behind Bitcoin in the first half of the year, but surged in August before plunging

Implications for Overall Market: Ethereum's movements indicate that the entire cryptocurrency market, including major altcoins, is undergoing a correction phase similar to Bitcoin.

1.2 Structural Factors Behind the Sharp Decline

1.2.1 Collapse of the "Two Pillars" Supporting the Bull Market

The 2025 bull market was driven by two distinct supporting factors:

First Pillar: Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Multiple rate cuts were market consensus at the beginning of the year
Liquidity expansion expectations lifted risk assets across the board
Current status: These expectations have receded, shrinking monetary easing expectations

Uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate policy has significantly reduced investor risk tolerance. If the high-interest-rate environment persists long-term, rising funding costs and reduced liquidity become particularly severe negative factors for the cryptocurrency market. This demonstrates that the cryptocurrency market has become more sensitive than ever to traditional financial market trends.

Second Pillar: Expanding Institutional Investor Participation

Capital inflows following Bitcoin ETF approval
Digital asset adoption by traditional financial institutions
Current status: Exit of momentum investors (short-term investors riding upward trends) is progressing

A newly materialized important factor in the November 2025 crash:

Spillover of Concerns to AI-Related Companies
Concerns about a major AI crash were growing among investors. The performance and stock price movements of AI-related companies, particularly semiconductor giants like NVIDIA, significantly impact investment sentiment across the entire technology sector. Anxiety spread through the market that a correction phase might arrive as a backlash to the overheated expectations for the AI boom.

Increasing Correlation with Technology Sector
The cryptocurrency market collapse proceeded in parallel with stock market declines, suggesting capital outflows from risk assets generally. This phenomenon suggests that cryptocurrencies are shifting their character from "independent asset class" to "technology-related risk assets."

With increased institutional investor participation, the cryptocurrency market has shown heightened correlation with traditional financial markets, particularly the technology sector. Consequently, cryptocurrencies tend to be sold simultaneously during stock market correction phases. While this represents one aspect of market maturation, it brings the trade-off of reduced independence.

1.2.3 Qualitative Assessment of Investor Psychology

CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill's observation:

"Investors are in a state of groping around, unable to grasp macroeconomic direction, intensifying anxiety by focusing exclusively on the movements of on-chain (blockchain-based) whale investors"

Market psychology gleaned from this statement:

Loss of direction: Inability to hold conviction about macroeconomic trends
Attention bias: Excessive focus on technical factors (whale movements) over fundamentals
Amplification of anxiety: Information asymmetry fuels anxiety, creating a situation where selling begets selling

Impact on Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Companies

Definition: Companies holding large quantities of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as corporate assets
Impact: Stock price premiums rapidly contracted
Background: Valuations premised on bull markets collapsed, and Bitcoin holdings were reassessed as risk factors

Specific Impact Mechanism:

Bitcoin price decline → Valuation losses on held assets
Receding expectations of future appreciation → Stock price premium contraction
Companies utilizing leverage → Additional fundraising pressure

1.3 Current Position in the Decline Phase

1.3.1 Expert Assessment of Current Situation

Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matthew Hougan's Perspective:

"I think we are approaching the end stages of the sell-off, but the market remains unstable, and cryptocurrencies could drop further before entering a recovery trend"

Three points extracted from this assessment:

Current position: Possibly approaching the end stages of selling
- Peak of panic selling may have passed
- However, uses cautious phrasing of "approaching" rather than definitive
Risk: Possibility of further downside
- Bottom confirmation has not been reached
- A further decline before recovery remains possible
Market condition: Ongoing instability
- Volatility (price fluctuation range) remains high
- May require time before direction is established

1.3.2 Technical Price Level Assessment

Comparing current price position with historical key levels:

Price Level	Significance	Relationship to Current Position
Over $126,000	2025 peak	Approximately 30% decline
$88,522	November 20 intraday low	Current position
$85,000	First psychological support level	Approximately 4% below
$80,000	Second psychological support level	Approximately 10% below
$77,424	2025 year-to-date low (April)	Approximately 13% below

Assessment from technical perspective:

Close to important psychological thresholds ($85,000, $80,000)
Need to consider both the possibility of rebounds at these levels and the risk of further declines if breached

1.3.3 Short-term Factors Serving as Recovery Triggers

Late November 19 situational changes:

Impact of Nvidia's Earnings Announcement

Showed solid revenue outlook
Eased concerns about slowing AI-related investment
Some cryptocurrency prices recovered from their lows

Market characteristics revealed by this event:

The cryptocurrency market shows high correlation with other risk asset markets (particularly tech stocks)
Positive news in macroeconomics/technology sector can serve as triggers for rebounds
However, distinction from fundamental trend reversal is necessary

1.4 Summary of Observed Facts and Bridge to Next Chapter

1.4.1 Confirmed Objective Facts

Organizing the observed facts compiled in this chapter:

Price & Market Capitalization

Bitcoin: $88,522 (lowest in 7 months)
Overall market: $1.1 trillion in market cap lost (25.6% decline)
Ethereum: Below $3,000
Relative underperformance against traditional safe-haven assets (bonds, gold)

Market Structure

$19 billion in leveraged positions forcibly liquidated
Capital outflows from ETFs and similar products
Exit of momentum investors
Heightened correlation with technology sector and stock markets

Background Factors

Receding Fed rate cut expectations
Diminishing institutional investor participation expectations
Macroeconomic uncertainty
Spillover of concerns to AI-related sectors

Current Position Assessment

Expert view: Possibly approaching the end stages of selling
Risk: Possibility of further downside
State: Market remains unstable

1.4.2 Questions Raised by These Observed Facts

From this objective situational assessment, the following questions emerge for exploration in subsequent chapters:

Have there been similar sharp declines in the past? What happened afterward? (Examined in Chapter 2)
Is this decline approaching its "end"? How do we judge this? (Examined in Chapter 3)
How will external factors (interest rates, risk appetite) impact the future? (Examined in Chapter 4)
What about Bitcoin-specific mechanisms (halving, etc.)? (Examined in Chapter 5)
Considering all of these, what is expected to happen going forward? (Examined in Chapters 6-8)

1.4.3 What Readers Should Understand at This Point

Understanding Current Position

We are at the boundary between "the end of the bull market" and "a new phase"
Prices are approaching important psychological thresholds
Bottom confirmation has not yet been achieved
The cryptocurrency market is strengthening its correlation with traditional financial markets, particularly the technology sector

Recognition of Uncertainty

Even experts limit themselves to expressions of "possibility"
Both further decline and recovery scenarios exist
Multiple factors are complexly intertwined, not a single cause
Establishment of credibility as a store of value remains a work in progress

Preparation for Next Analysis

The current situation alone cannot predict the future
Analysis of similar historical patterns is necessary
Comprehensive judgment integrating multiple analytical perspectives is required

References

Why crypto is melting down and stocks keep falling - CNN Business
Bitcoin price falls again as investors' fears grow of major AI crash - Yahoo Finance
Great Bitcoin Crash Of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold And More - YouTube

2. Cyclical Analysis: Extraction of Recurring Patterns

2.1 Basic Concepts of Bitcoin Price Cyclicality

Clear recurring patterns exist in the Bitcoin market. By understanding these patterns, we can determine "what stage" the current sharp decline is in.

2.1.1 Importance of Cyclical Analysis

Basis for predictability: Not completely random movements, but containing certain regularities
Identifying current position: We can infer future developments based on where we are in the cycle
Psychological stability: Recognition that "this has happened before" aids calm judgment

2.1.2 Major Cyclical Patterns

Three major cycles are observed in Bitcoin:

Halving cycle (approximately 4-year cycle): The most powerful cyclicality
Bull-bear market cycle (1.5-2.5 year fluctuations): Emotional overheating and cooling
Seasonal patterns (annual): Seasonal tendencies in investor behavior

2.2 Past Representative Crash Cases and Subsequent Trends

To understand the current situation, we will analyze three carefully selected major historical crash cases.

2.2.1 Case 1: May 2021 Crash (China Shock)

Overview of the Crash

Peak: $64,804 (April 14, 2021)
Post-crash low: $28,800 (June 22, 2021)
Decline rate: -55.6%
Crash duration: 69 days

Main Factors

China's strengthened cryptocurrency mining regulations
Elon Musk's announcement of Bitcoin payment suspension
Expanding environmental concerns
Mass liquidation of leveraged positions

Signs of Bottoming

On-chain indicators: Accelerated accumulation by long-term holders (HODL Waves rising)
Exchange outflows: Bitcoin moving from exchanges to personal wallets (+15% outflow)
Mining hash rate: Gradual recovery beginning after relocation from China

Progression to Recovery

Bottom formation period: June-July 2021 (approximately 6 weeks of sideways movement)
Gradual recovery: August-September 2021 ($40,000-$50,000 range)
Renewed uptrend: October-November 2021
New high reached: $69,000 (November 10, 2021)
Recovery period: Approximately 141 days from bottom to new high

Pattern Characteristics

Crash → Bottom exploration (6 weeks) → Range formation (2 months) → Uptrend resumption → New high (4.5 months later)

2.2.2 Case 2: June 2022 Crash (Luna Shock & Monetary Tightening)

Overview of the Crash

Peak: $69,000 (November 10, 2021)
Post-crash low: $17,567 (June 18, 2022)
Decline rate: -74.5%
Crash duration: 220 days (longer than previous case)

Main Factors

Rapid Fed rate hikes (consecutive rate increases beginning March 2022)
TerraUSD/LUNA collapse (May) causing systemic risk
Chain of failures of major lending companies including Celsius and Voyager
Deteriorating macro environment (inflation concerns, stock market correction)

Signs of Bottoming

Realized Price: Support confirmed around $19,000
Trading volume depletion: Suggesting reduced selling pressure
Fear & Greed Index: Reached extreme fear territory (8/100)
Whale accumulation: Increase in addresses holding 10,000+ BTC

Progression to Recovery

Bottom formation period: June-November 2022 (approximately 5 months of extended correction)
Range-bound market: Extended stagnation in $17,000-$25,000 range
Uptrend initiation: January 2023 (growing Bitcoin ETF expectations)
Full-scale recovery: October 2023 onward (spot ETF approval expectations)
New high reached: $73,750 in March 2024
Recovery period: Approximately 630 days (about 21 months) from bottom to new high

Pattern Characteristics

Crash → Extended bottom range (5 months) → Sideways period (12 months) → Gradual recovery (4 months) → New high (21 months later)

Differences from 2021

Larger decline rate (-74.5% vs -55.6%)
Recovery period more than 4 times longer
Macro economic factors more pronounced
Extended dwelling period in bottom range

2.2.3 Case 3: August 2024 Correction (Bank of Japan Shock)

Overview of the Crash

Recent high: $73,750 (March 14, 2024)
Post-correction low: $49,072 (August 5, 2024)
Decline rate: -33.5%
Crash duration: 144 days

Main Factors

Unwinding of carry trades due to Bank of Japan rate hike
US economic recession concerns
Nvidia stock plunge spillover to AI-related assets
Bitcoin selling pressure from Mt. Gox repayments

Signs of Bottoming

Decreased loss realization by short-term holders
Continued downward trend in exchange balances
Miner selling pressure subsiding
CME futures funding rate neutralizing

Progression to Recovery

Bottom formation period: August-September 2024 (approximately 4 weeks)
V-shaped recovery: Rapid rebound from mid-September
Accelerating uptrend: Political expectations ahead of US presidential election
All-time high update: Over $126,000 (January 2025)
Recovery period: Approximately 150 days (about 5 months) from bottom to new high

Pattern Characteristics

Correction → Short-term bottom formation (4 weeks) → V-shaped recovery (1 month) → Surge (3 months) → New high (5 months later)

Unique Points

Relatively moderate decline rate (-33.5%)
Extremely fast recovery speed
No extended bottom range formation
Strong influence of political factors (Trump re-election expectations)

2.2.4 Case 4: November 2025 Crash (Currently Ongoing)

Overview of the Crash

Peak: Over $126,000 (January 2025)
Price as of November 19: $89,090
Decline rate: -29.3%
Crash duration: Approximately 10 months (ongoing)

Main Factors

Large-scale selling by long-term holders
Largest single-day outflow of $523.2 million from BlackRock's IBIT ETF (largest since establishment in January 2024)
Breaking below psychological threshold of $90,000
Macroeconomic environment uncertainty

Market Spillover Effects
As of November 19, 2025, Bitcoin's price decline has had serious impacts on cryptocurrency-related company stock prices:

Coinbase Global: -4.9%
Bitfarms: -7.5%
Strategy: -10.3%
Riot Platforms: -3.7%
Hut 8 Mining: -3.3%
Mara Holdings: -6.6%

Current Market Conditions

24-hour trading volume: $71 billion
7-day high: $93,662
7-day low: $88,800
Market capitalization: $1.78 trillion
Circulating supply: 19.95 million BTC

Notable Points
The average purchase price for IBIT ETF investors is $90,146, meaning many institutional investors are currently holding unrealized losses at current price levels. This suggests a strengthening risk-averse stance among institutional investors.

Pattern Characteristics (Provisional)

Crash (10 months) → Bottom exploration (ongoing) → ?

2.3 Typology and Characteristics of Crash Patterns

2.3.1 Classification of Crash Types

From past cases, crashes can be classified into three types:

Type	Decline Rate	Recovery Period	Main Characteristics	Representative Examples
Type A: Short-term Correction	30-40%	4-6 months	External shock, short-term bottom formation, V-shaped recovery	May 2021, August 2024
Type B: Medium-term Correction	50-60%	6-12 months	Internal system factors, multi-month bottom range, gradual recovery	March 2020 (COVID shock)
Type C: Long-term Bear Market	70-85%	18-24 months	Deteriorating macro environment, extended bottom range, slow recovery	June 2022, December 2018

2.3.2 Criteria for Distinguishing Each Type

Characteristics of Type A (candidate for current November 2025 crash)

Crash progresses over several weeks to approximately 2 months
Decline rate approximately 30-40% from peak
Continued exchange outflows (transition to long-term holding)
Miner Capitulation concludes in short period
Selling pressure at bottom rapidly decreases

Characteristics of Type C (worst-case scenario)

Gradual decline over several months
Decline rate exceeds 70%
Sustained deterioration of macroeconomic indicators
Cascading problems including regulatory risks and corporate failures
Extended sideways movement in bottom range (4-6+ months)

2.3.3 Provisional Classification of November 2025 Crash

Current Position

Peak: Over $126,000 (January 2025)
Current price: $89,090 (November 19, 2025)
Decline rate: -29.3%
Elapsed period: Approximately 10 months

Clues for Type Determination

✓ Elements Suggesting Type A Possibility

Decline rate still around 30% (within Type A range)
Clear external shock factor present (mass liquidation on October 10)
Active 24-hour trading volume of $71 billion, with market liquidity maintained

⚠ Risk Elements for Transition to Type C

Receding Fed rate cut expectations (deteriorating macro environment)
Relatively long correction period of 10 months
Record capital outflow from BlackRock's IBIT ETF indicating institutional investor withdrawal
Cascading risk from significant decline in cryptocurrency-related company stocks
Sentiment deterioration from breaking below psychological threshold of $90,000

2.4 Prediction Model for Time Until Bottoming

2.4.1 Statistical Estimation from Past Cases

For Short-term Correction Type (Type A)

Time to reach bottom: 2-3 months from peak (currently approximately 10 months elapsed → possibility of already being in bottom range)
Duration in bottom range: 4-8 weeks
Total correction period: 4-6 months

For Long-term Bear Market Type (Type C)

Time to reach bottom: 6-9 months from peak (currently 10 months elapsed → possibility of bottom being near)
Duration in bottom range: 4-6+ months
Total correction period: 18-24 months

2.4.2 Application to Current Situation

Analysis as of November 20, 2025
Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,090, with approximately 10 months having elapsed since the January 2025 peak. The 7-day low has declined to $88,800, completely breaking below the psychological threshold of $90,000.

Scenario 1: Assuming Type A

Already exceeding standard correction period (4-6 months)
Bottom likely already formed or about to be reached
Even with additional decline, around $88,000 would be the limit
Clear reversal signals in December 2025 ~ January 2026

Scenario 2: Assuming Type C

Entering bottom-reaching period (6-9 months elapsed)
However, need to prepare for extended dwelling in bottom range (4-6 months)
Risk of decline to $70,000 range remains
Full-scale recovery from second half of 2026 onward

2.4.3 Probability Distribution of Time Series Forecast

6-Month Development Forecast (November 2025 ~ May 2026)

Period	Type A Scenario (35% probability)	Type C Scenario (65% probability)
Late November 2025	Bottom confirmation at $88,000-90,000	Further decline, reaching $85,000-88,000
December 2025	Sideways in bottom range, minor rebound	Continued weakness in bottom range, around $85,000
January 2026	Recovery begins toward $95,000-100,000	Continues in bottom range, $83,000-90,000
February-March 2026	Reaching $105,000-110,000	Initial signs of escaping bottom range, $95,000 level
April-May 2026	Over $115,000, uptrend established	Gradual recovery, $100,000-110,000

Rationale for Probability Settings

Type C (65%): Higher probability assigned to more cautious scenario based on current macro environment (receding Fed rate cut expectations), record-scale ETF capital outflows, and length of correction period
Type A (35%): Considering decline rate still around 30% and active liquidity with 24-hour trading volume of $71 billion (revised down from previous 40%)

2.5 Analysis of Period from Bottom to Uptrend Transition

2.5.1 Standard Progression from Bottom Confirmation to New High

Time Axis Comparison of Past Cases

Case	Bottom Confirmation	Escaping Bottom Range	Uptrend Establishment	New High Reached	Total Period
May 2021 Crash	Late June	Early August (6 weeks later)	Early October (3.5 months later)	Early November (4.5 months later)	4.5 months
June 2022 Crash	Mid-June	January 2023 (7 months later)	October 2023 (16 months later)	March 2024 (21 months later)	21 months
August 2024 Correction	Early August	Early September (4 weeks later)	Mid-October (2.5 months later)	January 2025 (5 months later)	5 months

Average Values

Type A (short-term): 4.5-5 months
Type C (long-term): 21 months

2.5.2 Details of Gradual Recovery Process

The transition to an uptrend proceeds through the following four stages:

Stage 1: Bottom Confirmation Period (2-8 weeks)

Notable decrease in selling pressure
Volume depletion (Capitulation Volume)
Long-term holders begin accumulation
Price movements that raise the lower bound

Stage 2: Escaping Bottom Range Period (1-6 months)

Clear lows no longer updated
Range-bound market formation (±10-15% fluctuation)
Reduced reaction to news (no longer declining on bad news)
Improvement in on-chain indicators

Stage 3: Uptrend Establishment Period (2-6 months)

Golden cross of moving averages (50-day crossing above 200-day)
Highs and lows progressively rising
Increasing trading volume (new capital inflows)
Strengthened reaction to positive news

Stage 4: New High Achievement Period

Breaking through past all-time high
Increased media coverage and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)
Mass influx of new investors
Psychological establishment of bull market

2.5.3 Application to November 2025 Crash

For Type A (Duration: 6 months)

November 2025 (Bottom Confirmation) 
    ↓ 6-8 weeks
Late December 2025 ~ January 2026 (Escaping Bottom Range)
    ↓ 2-3 months
March ~ April 2026 (Uptrend Establishment)
    ↓ 1-2 months
May ~ June 2026 (New High Achievement)

Estimated New High: $130,000-$140,000

For Type C (Duration: 18-24 months)

November ~ December 2025 (Bottom Confirmation)
    ↓ 4-6 months
April ~ June 2026 (Escaping Bottom Range)
    ↓ 6-9 months
October 2026 ~ March 2027 (Uptrend Establishment)
    ↓ 3-6 months
April ~ September 2027 (New High Achievement)

Estimated New High: $140,000-$180,000 (rebounds after longer corrections tend to be stronger)

2.6 Impact of Seasonal Patterns

2.6.1 Annual Seasonal Trends

The following seasonality is observed in the Bitcoin market:

Historically Strong Months

October-December: "Uptober" phenomenon, year-end rally
January-February: New year capital inflows, tax refund investments

Historically Weak Months

May-June: "Sell in May", summer doldrums
August-September: Declining liquidity, correction risk

2.6.2 Characteristics of Current Period (November)

Normal November Pattern

Historically a month with high appreciation rates (70% positive in past 10 years)
Expectations for year-end rally
Institutional investor year-end portfolio adjustments

Exceptionality of November 2025

Continued crash contrary to normal pattern
Breaking below psychological threshold of $90,000, trading in the $89,000 range
May suggest severity of correction
However, possibility of rebound toward December remains

2.6.3 Future Seasonal Outlook

December 2025 ~ January 2026

Year-end/New Year buying demand may serve as catalyst for recovery
However, risk of seasonality being negated if large-scale institutional outflows continue

March ~ May 2026

Historically a period of reinvestment after tax payments
For Type A, possibility of uptrend establishment during this period

2.7 Key Lessons from Cyclical Analysis

2.7.1 Distinguishing Certainty from Uncertainty

High Certainty Elements

Clear cyclicality exists in Bitcoin
Bottom formation period always follows crashes
Historical pattern of gradual recovery after bottom formation
Track record of eventually reaching new highs (100% probability historically)

High Uncertainty Elements

Whether current crash is Type A or Type C
Exact price level of bottom
Specific timing of recovery initiation
Period until new high achievement

2.7.2 Mindset Investors Should Adopt

History is reference, not guarantee: Past patterns are useful, but different developments are possible this time
Recognition of time horizon: Strategy differs significantly between short-term (6 months) and long-term (24 months)
Preparation for multiple scenarios: Don't bet on single scenario, prepare flexible responses
Monitor institutional investor trends: Smart money movements such as large-scale IBIT ETF outflows serve as important indicators

2.7.3 Bridge to Next Chapter

Through cyclical analysis, the broad framework of "what stage" the current crash is at compared to past cases has become visible. Current price is trading around $89,090, having declined to a 7-day low of $88,800.

However, to accurately determine where we are in the cycle, more specific criteria for identifying turning points are needed. The next chapter will provide detailed explanation of quantitative and qualitative indicators for determining bottom confirmation, reversal initiation, and uptrend establishment.

Chapter Summary

Bitcoin crashes can be broadly classified into two patterns: Type A (short-term correction) and Type C (long-term bear market)
The November 2025 crash is estimated at 35% probability Type A, 65% probability Type C (revised down considering large-scale institutional outflows)
Current price is $89,090, breaking below the psychological threshold of $90,000

3. Turning Point Identification: Criteria for State Transitions

3.1 Definition and Classification of Market Reversals

Turning points in the Bitcoin market refer to boundary points where the direction of price trends clearly changes. Accurately identifying turning points is one of the most important skills in investment decision-making.

3.1.1 Three Types of Turning Points

Type A: End of Uptrend (Top Formation)

Definition: Phase where continuous uptrend stops and transitions to decline or sideways movement
The $126,000 on October 6, 2025, corresponds to this
Characteristics: Failure to update highs, decreasing volume, depletion of buying pressure

Type B: End of Downtrend (Bottom Formation)

Definition: Phase where continuous downtrend stops and transitions to rise or sideways movement
Not yet reached as of November 20, 2025
Characteristics: Attenuation of selling pressure, increasing volume, exhaustion of capitulation selling

Type C: Breakout from Sideways Market

Definition: Phase where range-bound market ends and transitions to movement with clear direction
Direction can occur either upward or downward
Characteristics: Sudden increase in volatility, surge in volume

3.1.2 Risk of Misidentification

The greatest challenge in identifying turning points is distinguishing from temporary rebounds (dead cat bounce) or fake breakouts.

Dead Cat Bounce: Temporary rebound during decline, not true bottom formation
Bull Trap: Appears to be rising but declines again - a "trap"
Bear Trap: Appears to be declining but rises again - a "trap"

To discern these, it is important to wait for multiple confirmation signals.

3.2 Key Points for Identifying Top Formation (End of Uptrend)

3.2.1 Identification by Price Patterns

Double Top/Triple Top

Tests same price level 2 or 3 times but cannot break through
Volume at 2nd/3rd high is lower than 1st
Confirmed when neckline (support line) is broken downward
Clear double top was not formed in October 2025 phase

Head and Shoulders (Three Buddha Top)

Central high (head) is highest, with highs on both sides (shoulders) lower
One of the most reliable top patterns
Upon neckline breakthrough, decline tends to equal "distance from head to neckline"

Rising Wedge

Both highs and lows rise but upward angle gradually decelerates
Suggests increasing resistance at top
Top confirmed with downward break

3.2.2 Volume and On-Chain Indicators

Volume Attenuation Pattern

Volume progression when updating highs:
Wave 1: 100 (baseline)
Wave 2: 80-90 (caution)
Wave 3: 60-70 (danger)

When price rises while volume decreases, it suggests buyer exhaustion.

On-Chain Indicator Top Signals

Increased deposits to exchanges
- Investors transferring to exchanges for selling preparation
- Notable increase in early October 2025
Long-term holder profit-taking
- Movement of coins held for 1+ years
- Caution when SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) exceeds 1.5
Surge in new entrants
- Rapid increase in new addresses often near tops
- Suggests entry of "last buyers"

3.2.3 Market Sentiment Indicators

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Quantifies market psychology on 0-100 scale
Above 75 (Extreme Greed): Possible top proximity
Early October 2025: 83 (Extreme Greed)
November 20, 2025: 18 (Extreme Fear)

Social Media Indicators

Number of "Bitcoin" mentions on Twitter/X
Surges in Google search trends
Increased positive coverage in mainstream media
When these overlap, often near top

3.2.4 Analysis of October 2025 Top Formation

Confirmed Top Signals (Post-Event Analysis)

Indicator	Observed Value	Assessment
Peak	$126,000 (October 6)	Reference point
Fear & Greed Index	83	Extreme Greed
Exchange deposits	+45% week-over-week	Selling pressure
New address count	Record high level	Last buyers
Volume	Decreased on high updates	Buyer exhaustion
RSI (Relative Strength Index)	78 (overheated)	Overbought

Easily Missed Signals

Increased miner selling: +30% month-over-month in first week of October
Whale distribution: Declining holdings ratio of top 100 addresses
Derivatives market funding rate: +50% annualized (abnormally bullish)

3.3 Key Points for Identifying Bottom Formation (End of Downtrend)

3.3.1 Identification by Price Patterns

Double Bottom/Triple Bottom

Tests same price level 2 or 3 times but does not break below
Volume decreases at 2nd/3rd bottom
Bottom confirmed with resistance line breakthrough
Target price: Rise equivalent to distance from bottom to resistance

Inverse Head and Shoulders (Inverse Three Buddha)

Central low (head) is lowest, with lows on both sides (shoulders) higher
Enters uptrend with neckline breakthrough
Most reliable bottom pattern

Falling Wedge

Both lows and highs decline but downward angle gradually decelerates
Suggests attenuation of selling pressure
Bottom confirmation possible with upward break

3.3.2 Panic Selling Indicators

Characteristics of Climax Selling (Capitulation):

Typical Pattern:
- 10-20% plunge in single day
- Volume 3-5x normal
- Mass liquidation of long positions
- Fear & Greed Index below 10

Analysis of November 10, 2025 Climax Selling

Decline magnitude: 18% in 24 hours
Volume: 4.2x normal
Liquidation amount: $19 billion (one of largest on record)
Fear & Greed Index: 12

Capitulation of this scale often serves as a signal for short-term bottom formation. According to Glassnode's capitulation indicator, the November 2025 capitulation rate reached levels comparable to the $50,000 bottom in August 2024 and the $74,500 bottom in April 2025, showing similarity to historical bottom formation phases.

3.3.3 Three-Stage Bottom Confirmation Process

Stage 1: Initial Bottom (Primary Bottom)

Provisional bottom formed by panic selling
The November 10, 2025 low of $88,522 may correspond to this
Reliability: 40-50%

Stage 2: Retest (Secondary Bottom)

After rebound from primary bottom, tests low range again
If doesn't break below primary bottom, forms double bottom
If breaks below, possibility of further decline
Reliability: 60-70%

Stage 3: Confirmation (Bottom Established)

Breaks through resistance line connecting primary and secondary bottoms
Clearly breaks above 20-day moving average
Rise accompanied by volume
Reliability: 80-90%

Time Frame Guidelines

Primary bottom → Rebound: 1-3 days
Rebound → Secondary bottom: 1-3 weeks
Secondary bottom → Confirmation: 1-4 weeks
Overall process: 3-8 weeks

3.3.4 Bottom Signals Based on On-Chain Indicators

1. Increased Withdrawals from Exchanges

Investors moving to cold wallets for long-term holding
Suggests decreasing selling pressure
Reliability increases when withdrawal volume exceeds deposit volume for 1 week continuously

2. Relationship with Realized Price

Realized Price: Average acquisition price of all Bitcoin
When market price falls below realized price, historically a buying opportunity
Realized price as of November 2025: Approximately $95,000 (estimated)
Current price $88,522 < Realized Price: Possible bottom range

3. MVRV Ratio

Market Value to Realized Value ratio
MVRV < 1.0: Overall market in unrealized loss (historical buying opportunity)
Below 0.8: Strong buy signal
November 20, 2025: Approximately 0.93 (within buying range)

According to CryptoQuant analysis, as of November 2025, the MVRV ratio has declined to approximately 1.8, the lowest level since April. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls to the 1.8-2.0 range, it often coincides with medium-term market bottoms or early recovery phases, suggesting a possible accumulation zone.

When the MVRV ratio was at similar levels in mid-April 2025, Bitcoin price bottomed at $74,500 and subsequently recorded a 50% rise to the all-time high of $112,000 on July 9. If a similar recovery repeats, prices could rise to $150,000, which would represent approximately a 50% increase from the early November low of $98,500.

Long-term Perspective on MVRV Z-Score

From the MVRV Z-Score perspective, significant upside potential remains in the current market. Compared to past cycles where the Z-Score exceeded 7, the early 2025 level is comparable to May 2017 levels, and considering that Bitcoin was worth only thousands of dollars at that time, the possibility exists for increases of several hundred percent from current levels.

4. Puell Multiple (Miner Revenue Indicator)

Miner daily revenue ÷ 365-day moving average
Below 0.5: Miners in distress → Possible bottom proximity
Important because miners are "participants with the most selling pressure"

5. NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions)

Market capitalization ÷ Transaction volume
Too high: Overvalued
Too low: Undervalued (buying opportunity)
Confirm deviation from historical average

3.3.5 Temporal Patterns of Bottom Formation

Major Past Bottom Formation Periods

2018 Bear Market

Top: December 2017 $19,783
Primary bottom: February 2018 $6,000 (2 months from top)
Final bottom: December 2018 $3,122 (12 months from top)
Bottom period: Approximately 10-month range-bound market

2022 Bear Market

Top: November 2021 $69,000
Primary bottom: May 2022 $26,700 (6 months from top)
Final bottom: November 2022 $15,476 (12 months from top)
Bottom period: Approximately 6-month range-bound market

Current Situation in 2025

Top: October 2025 $126,000
Primary bottom: November 10, 2025 $88,522 (1 month from top)
Elapsed period: Still very short
More rapid decline than usual → Bottom formation may also be faster

3.3.6 Bottom Assessment as of November 20, 2025

Confirmed Bottom Signals

Indicator	Current Status	Assessment	Confidence
Climax selling	Occurred (11/10)	✓	Medium
Fear & Greed Index	18 (Extreme Fear)	✓	Medium
Market price vs Realized price	88,522 < 95,000	✓	High
MVRV ratio	1.8 (lowest since April)	✓	High
Capitulation rate	Past bottom levels	✓	High
Net outflow from exchanges	Unconfirmed	?	-
Double bottom formation	Not formed	✗	-
20-day MA breakthrough	Not achieved	✗	-
Time elapsed	1 month (insufficient)	△	Low

Provisional Assessment: 65% Possibility of Initial Bottom (Primary Bottom)

Signals showing exhaustion of strong selling pressure
On-chain indicators show similarity to historical bottom formation phases
However, awaiting Stage 2 of confirmation process (retest)
Risk of further decline to $85,000-80,000 range
2-4 weeks of additional observation needed for true bottom confirmation

3.4 Determining Breakout from Sideways Market (Range)

3.4.1 Definition of Range-Bound Market

Conditions for Range-Bound Market

Clear support line (lower support) and resistance line (upper resistance)
Price range width approximately 10-20%
Testing support and resistance 3+ times
Duration: 2+ weeks

Anticipated Range-Bound Market in 2025

Anticipated support: $85,000-88,000
Anticipated resistance: $102,000-105,000
Range width: Approximately 17%
Formation period: Late November ~ December 2025 (projected)

3.4.2 Determining Breakout Reliability

Conditions for True Breakout

Clear Price Breakthrough
- Break through resistance/support by 3-5%+
- Break with body, not just wick (momentary breakthrough)
Increased Volume
- Volume at breakout 1.5x+ average
- Breakouts without volume tend to fail
Confirmation of Continuity
- After breakout, doesn't return to range for 24-48 hours
- Successful retest (former resistance converts to support)
Increased On-Chain Activity
- Increase in active address count
- Increase in whale transactions

Characteristics of Fake Breakout

Not accompanied by volume
Quickly returns to range
No change in on-chain activity
Temporary movement immediately after news event

3.4.3 Predicting Breakout Direction

Which direction to break from range-bound market is judged by the following factors:

Signs of Upward Breakout

Lows within range gradually rise (ascending triangle)
Increased approaches to resistance
Increased withdrawals from exchanges (decreasing selling pressure)
Positive macroeconomic news

Signs of Downward Breakout

Highs within range gradually decline (descending triangle)
Increased approaches to support
Increased deposits to exchanges (increasing selling pressure)
Negative macroeconomic news

Statistical Tendencies

Range during uptrend: 65% break upward
Range during downtrend: 65% break downward
Long-term range (3+ months): Direction prediction difficult

3.5 Turning Point Identification Using Technical Indicators

3.5.1 Golden Cross and Death Cross of Moving Averages

Golden Cross (Upward Reversal Signal)

Short-term moving average (50-day) breaks above long-term moving average (200-day) from below
Reliability: Medium to high (but lagging indicator)
Typically occurs 2-8 weeks after bottom formation

Death Cross (Downward Reversal Signal)

Short-term moving average (50-day) breaks below long-term moving average (200-day) from above
Reliability: Medium to high (but lagging indicator)
Typically occurs 2-8 weeks after top formation

2025 Situation

As of October 2025: 50-day MA significantly above 200-day MA
As of November 20, 2025: Approaching death cross
Forecast: Possibility of death cross occurring in early December
As this is a lagging indicator, cannot be used for bottom confirmation

3.5.2 Overbought/Oversold Assessment Using RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI Basics

0-100 scale
Above 70: Overbought (possible top proximity)
Below 30: Oversold (possible bottom proximity)

Divergence

Price updates high but RSI doesn't: Bearish divergence (top signal)
Price updates low but RSI doesn't: Bullish divergence (bottom signal)

2025 Situation

October 6 (top): RSI 78 (overheated)
November 10 (primary bottom): RSI 22 (oversold)
November 20: RSI 31 (slightly escaped oversold territory)

3.5.3 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

MACD Reversal Signals

MACD line crosses signal line from below: Buy signal
MACD line crosses signal line from above: Sell signal
Relationship with zero line: Buy signal above zero is strong

Reading the Histogram

Expansion: Trend strengthening
Contraction: Trend attenuation
Zero crossing: Possibility of trend reversal

3.5.4 Bollinger Bands

Expansion from Squeeze (Contraction)

Band width contraction: Declining volatility (range-bound market)
Sudden band width expansion: Start of large price movement
Direction determined in combination with other indicators

Band Walk

Price trends along outside of band: Strong trend
Upper band walk: Strong uptrend
Lower band walk: Strong downtrend

3.6 Integrated Assessment Framework for Multiple Indicators

3.6.1 Confidence Scoring System

Since judgment using single indicators is difficult, multiple indicators must be integrated.

Top Determination Scoring (100 points maximum)

Category	Indicator	Points	October 2025
Price Pattern	Double top formation	15 pts	0 pts
	Volume attenuation	10 pts	8 pts
On-Chain	Exchange deposit increase	15 pts	13 pts
	Long-term holder selling	10 pts	8 pts
	MVRV ratio > 3.0	10 pts	9 pts
Market Sentiment	Fear & Greed > 75	10 pts	10 pts
	Social overheating	10 pts	7 pts
Technical	RSI > 70	10 pts	10 pts
	Bearish divergence	10 pts	6 pts
Total		100 pts	71 pts

Assessment Criteria

70+ points: Extremely high possibility of top
50-69 points: High possibility of top
30-49 points: Caution required
29 points or below: Low possibility of top

→ As of October 6, 2025: 71 points (extremely high possibility of top)

Bottom Determination Scoring (100 points maximum)

Category	Indicator	Points	November 20, 2025
Price Pattern	Double bottom formation	15 pts	0 pts
	Climax selling	15 pts	15 pts
On-Chain	Exchange withdrawal increase	10 pts	Unconfirmed
	Price < Realized Price	15 pts	15 pts
	MVRV ratio < 2.0	10 pts	10 pts
	Capitulation	10 pts	10 pts
Market Sentiment	Fear & Greed < 25	10 pts	10 pts
Technical	RSI < 30	10 pts	8 pts (31)
	Bullish divergence	5 pts	Unconfirmed
Total		100 pts	68 pts

Assessment Criteria

70+ points: Extremely high possibility of bottom
50-69 points: High possibility of bottom
30-49 points: Possibility of further decline
29 points or below: Too early for bottom

→ As of November 20, 2025: 68 points (high possibility of bottom, in confirmation stage)

3.6.2 Time-Series Monitoring Protocol

Daily Checklist

Closing price (rate of change from previous day)
Volume (comparison with average)
Fear & Greed Index
Position relative to major resistance/support

Weekly Checklist

Exchange deposit/withdrawal flows
Active address count trends
Long-term holder behavior (SOPR, etc.)
Moving average configuration
Weekly candlestick patterns

Monthly Checklist

MVRV ratio trends
Puell Multiple trends
NVT ratio trends
Monthly trend analysis
Position within halving cycle

3.7 Turning Point Assessment as of November 20, 2025

3.7.1 Current Position Assessment

Positioning within Decline Phase

Phase 1: Initial Decline (Early to Mid-October)
  Characteristics: Profit-taking, optimism remains
  → Completed

Phase 2: Accelerated Decline (Late October to Early November)
  Characteristics: Stop-loss selling cascade, pessimism rising
  → Completed

Phase 3: Panic Selling (November 10)
  Characteristics: Capitulation, liquidation storm
  → Completed

Phase 4: Bottom Exploration (Mid-November to December?)  ← Currently here
  Characteristics: Selling pressure attenuation, bottom testing
  → In progress

4. External Influence Factors: Forces Acting from Outside the System

Bitcoin prices are strongly influenced not only by supply and demand within the cryptocurrency market, but also by external factors such as traditional financial markets and economic environments. This chapter analyzes three external influence factors essential for understanding the sharp decline as of November 20, 2025, and predicting future developments.

4.1 Correlation with US Treasury Yields

4.1.1 Why US Treasury Yields Matter

US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, serve as the "risk-free rate" and become the benchmark for evaluating expected returns on all assets. The investment attractiveness of risk assets like Bitcoin is judged in comparison to this benchmark rate.

Basic Mechanism:

When yields rise: Safe assets (US Treasuries) become more attractive, capital flows out of risk assets
When yields fall: Risk assets become relatively more attractive, capital flows in

4.1.2 Past Correlation Patterns

2022 Rapid Rate Increase Phase

10-year yield: 1.5% → 4.3% (approximately 2.8% increase)
Bitcoin: $47,000 → $15,000 (approximately 68% decline)
Correlation period: Approximately 10 months

2023 Rate Stabilization Phase

10-year yield: Ranged around 4.3% → 3.8%
Bitcoin: $15,000 → $42,000 (approximately 180% increase)
Correlation period: Approximately 8 months

Important Observations:

During phases when yields rise by 0.5%+, Bitcoin tends to decline by 50%+
When yields peak and stabilize, Bitcoin tends to bottom 3-4 months later
During yield decline phases, Bitcoin's appreciation rate reaches 30-50x the magnitude of yield decline

4.1.3 Current Situation as of November 2025

Current Interest Rate Environment (as of November 20, 2025):

According to the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 Report and the St. Louis Federal Reserve's FRED database as of November 19, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield (DGS10 series) continues to be published as market yield. The US Treasury's Data Chart Center also provides daily rate data, allowing investors to confirm the latest rate trends from these official sources.

Estimated Interest Rate Environment:

10-year yield: Around 4.5% (estimated)
Fed policy rate: 5.25-5.50% range (continuing to hold)
Market rate cut expectations: Expectations for 1-2 rate cuts within 2025 have receded

Impact Analysis on Bitcoin:

In early 2025, the market expected "multiple Fed rate cuts," driving Bitcoin up to $126,000, but this expectation has dissolved due to the following factors:

Renewed inflation concerns: Persistently high oil prices and wage increase pressures
Fed maintains hawkish stance: Clear message that "premature rate cuts will be avoided"
Expanding fiscal deficit: Upward pressure on yields from increased US Treasury supply

Correlation Thresholds:

10-year yield breaks above 4.7%: Strong headwind for Bitcoin (historical data shows -20% downward pressure)
10-year yield breaks below 4.0%: Important signal for Bitcoin reversal
10-year yield below 3.5%: Full-fledged bull market (historically +50%+ appreciation)

4.1.4 Practical Monitoring Indicators

Indicators Investors Should Check Daily:

Indicator	Check Frequency	Data Source	Important Threshold	Suggested Market Development
10-year yield	Daily	FRED DGS10	Above 4.7%	Bitcoin decline accelerates
10-year yield	Daily	FRED DGS10	Below 4.0%	Bottom expectation
FRB H.15 Report	Daily	Federal Reserve	Rate trends	Confirm policy stance
2-year-10-year spread	Weekly	FRED	Inverted yield resolution	Possibility of risk-on resumption
FRB minutes	Upon publication	Federal Reserve	Mention of rate cut timing	Anticipate price movements weeks ahead

Current Assessment (November 20, 2025):

10-year yield trading around 4.5% → "Neutral to slightly headwind"
Receding Fed rate cut expectations → "Additional downward pressure"
Rate trends over next 3 months will be turning point for breaking below $85,000 or rebounding

4.2 Relationship with Risk-On/Risk-Off

4.2.1 Risk Appetite and Bitcoin's Positioning

Bitcoin behaves as a high-beta asset (an asset with high volatility relative to overall market movements). That is:

Risk-on: When investors actively take risks → Bitcoin rises more than stocks
Risk-off: When investors flee to safe assets → Bitcoin falls more than stocks

4.2.2 Major Risk-On/Risk-Off Indicators

VIX Index (Fear Index)

Below 15: Low volatility, risk-on → Bitcoin appreciation environment
15-25: Moderate volatility → Direction uncertain
25-35: High volatility, risk-off → Bitcoin downward pressure
Above 35: Panic levels → Bitcoin sharp decline (also opportunity for short-term overselling)

Historical Correlation Cases:

March 2020 COVID Shock

VIX: Surged to 82 (record high level)
Bitcoin: $9,000 → $3,800 (approximately 58% decline, 2 days)
Afterward: When VIX declined below 50, Bitcoin recovered to $7,000 within 1 month

2022 Ukraine Crisis

VIX: Ranged at 35-40
Bitcoin: 3-month sideways movement → Downtrend continued
Explanation: Genuine Bitcoin recovery is difficult while VIX remains above 35

Correlation with S&P 500

Before 2021: Correlation coefficient 0.3-0.5 (moderate correlation)
After 2022: Correlation coefficient 0.6-0.8 (strong correlation)
Meaning: Bitcoin's nature has changed from "digital gold (safe asset)" to "growth asset like tech stocks"

4.2.3 Risk Environment in November 2025

Current Risk-Off Factors:

Geopolitical Risks
- Escalating Middle East tensions
- Rekindled US-China trade friction
- European recession concerns
Financial Market Stress
- October 10 leveraged position liquidation (approximately $19 billion)
- Continued capital outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs
- Rapid contraction of DAT company stock price premiums
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- Dilemma of rekindled inflation vs economic slowdown
- Market confusion over Fed policy direction
- Rising recession probability in second half of 2025

Current VIX Level and Implications:

Estimated VIX level: 20-25 (somewhat elevated)
Implication: Risk-off tendency continues, Bitcoin rebound requires time
Guideline: Recovery above $95,000 is difficult unless VIX declines below 18

4.2.4 Signals for Risk-On Transition

"Risk-On Resumption" Signs Investors Should Monitor:

Stable VIX Decline
- 3 consecutive days below 25 → Early sign of bottoming
- 1 week continuous below 20 → Possibility of reversal upward
- Stable below 15 → Transition to bull market
S&P 500 Movement
- 5-day moving average recovery → Bitcoin reacts with several days delay
- New high update → Bitcoin tends to seek highs within several weeks
Credit Spread Contraction
- Yield spread between high-yield bonds and Treasuries contracts → Corporate funding environment improves → Risk-on
Cryptocurrency-Specific Indicators
- Stablecoin supply increase → Preparation for new capital inflows
- Bitcoin outflow from exchanges → Transition to long-term holding (reduced selling pressure)

Current Assessment (November 20, 2025):

Risk-off environment continues
No signs of improvement in VIX or credit spreads
Estimated minimum 2-4 weeks needed until risk-on transition

4.3 Global Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Trends

4.3.1 Global Liquidity and Bitcoin

Central bank balance sheet totals are an important factor determining Bitcoin's medium to long-term trends.

Mechanism:

Central bank quantitative easing (QE) → Money supply increases → Surplus capital flows to risk assets
Central bank quantitative tightening (QT) → Liquidity decreases → Capital outflows from risk assets

Historical Correlation:

2020-2021 Large-Scale Easing

Fed, ECB, BoJ balance sheets: Total increase of $8 trillion
Bitcoin: $10,000 → $69,000 (approximately 590% appreciation)
Period: Approximately 18 months

2022-2024 Tightening

Fed balance sheet: $9 trillion → $7.5 trillion (approximately $1.5 trillion decrease)
Bitcoin: $47,000 → $15,000 (lowest, 68% decline)
Subsequently recovered as tightening pace slowed

4.3.2 Inverse Correlation with Dollar Index (DXY)

Relationship Between Dollar Strength/Weakness and Bitcoin:

Strong dollar: Other assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities) become relatively expensive → Selling pressure
Weak dollar: Buying pressure on risk assets generally

Specific Correlation:

DXY below 100: Favorable environment for Bitcoin
DXY above 105: Headwind for Bitcoin (historically 10-20% downward pressure)
DXY above 110: Strong dollar with significant Bitcoin decline risk

November 2025 Situation:

DXY level: Estimated 104-106 (somewhat strong dollar)
Factors: Fed's hawkish stance, other central banks continuing rate cuts
Implication: Strong dollar serves as additional downward factor for Bitcoin

4.3.3 Institutional Investor Capital Flows

Bitcoin ETF Capital Flow Trends (Important Indicator)

Since Bitcoin spot ETF approval in January 2024, institutional investor capital flows directly impact prices:

Capital Inflow Phase (January 2024 - Early October 2025)

Monthly average $200-500 million net inflows
Bitcoin: $42,000 → $126,000

Capital Outflow Phase (Mid-October 2025 onward)

Continuous net outflows since October 10
Cumulative outflows: Estimated $1-1.5 billion
Bitcoin: $126,000 → $88,500 (current)

Capital Flow Reversal Signals:

3 consecutive days of net inflows: Early sign of bottoming
Weekly net inflows over $500 million: Possibility of uptrend resumption
Monthly net inflows over $2 billion: Full-fledged bull market

4.3.4 Corporate Bitcoin Purchasing Trends (DAT Companies)

Impact of DAT Company Treasury Strategy:

The movement of companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Coinbase holding Bitcoin as reserve assets has been notable since 2020.

November 2025 Situation:

Rapid contraction of DAT company stock price premiums (as noted in news)
Meaning: Reduced corporate appetite for additional purchases, rather concerns of selling pressure
Impact: Monthly buyers of $100-200 million scale decrease → Supply-demand deterioration

Monitoring Points:

MicroStrategy's purchase announcements at quarterly earnings
Presence/absence of large corporate Bitcoin holdings sales
Entry of new DAT companies (positive sign)

4.3.5 Comprehensive Assessment of External Factors (as of November 20, 2025)

External Factor	Current Status	Impact on Bitcoin	Importance
US Treasury yields	Around 4.5%, persistently high	Strong headwind	★★★★★
Risk-on/off	Risk-off continues	Headwind	★★★★☆
VIX Index	20-25 (somewhat high)	Slight headwind	★★★★☆
Dollar Index	104-106 (strong dollar)	Headwind	★★★☆☆
ETF capital flows	Net outflows continue	Strong headwind	★★★★★
DAT company trends	Reduced purchase appetite	Slight headwind	★★★☆☆
Global liquidity	Tightening continues	Medium-term headwind	★★★★☆

Overall Assessment:
Currently, 6 out of 7 major external factors present headwinds or strong headwinds. For Bitcoin to transition to sustained appreciation, at least the following conditions are necessary:

US Treasury yields decline below 4.3% (most critical)
VIX stabilizes below 20
Capital inflows to ETFs continue for 3+ days

Until these conditions are met, there is high risk of ranging between $85,000-$95,000 or additional decline.

4.4 Practical Guide for Monitoring External Factors

4.4.1 Daily Indicators to Check (Priority Order)

[Top Priority] Morning 5-Minute Checklist:

10-Year US Treasury Yield (1 minute)
- Sources: FRED DGS10, Federal Reserve H.15, Bloomberg, TradingView
- Thresholds: 4.0%, 4.5%, 4.7%
VIX Index (1 minute)
- Sources: CBOE, Yahoo Finance
- Thresholds: 18, 25, 35
Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows (2 minutes)
- Sources: CoinShares weekly reports, The Block
- Assessment: Whether previous day was inflow or outflow
S&P 500 Previous Close/Current Movement (1 minute)
- Sources: Google Finance, brokerage accounts
- Assessment: Position relative to 5-day moving average

[Weekly] Weekend Detailed Analysis (20 minutes):

Summary of Fed Official Statements (5 minutes)
- Sources: Fed website, financial news
- Focus: Mentions of rate cut timing
Cryptocurrency ETF Weekly Flow Compilation (5 minutes)
- Net inflow/outflow totals and trends
- Alert if 3 consecutive weeks of outflows, watch if reversal to inflows
Geopolitical Risk Inventory (5 minutes)
- Presence of new conflicts, sanctions, political instability
- Assess whether risk-off will be prolonged
Dollar Index Weekly Trends (5 minutes)
- Number of days trending above 105
- Signs of trend reversal

4.4.2 Action Assessment Table for External Factor Changes

External Factor Change	Predicted Bitcoin Price Impact	Recommended Action
10-year yield drops -0.3%+ sharply	+10-15% within 1-2 weeks	Consider buying more
VIX declines below 15	+5-10% within days	Consider buy position
ETF 3 consecutive days net inflow	+5-8% within 1 week	Consider buying more
10-year yield rises +0.3%+ sharply	-10-15% within days	Stop-loss, risk reduction
VIX surges above 35	-15-25% same day	Temporary exit, wait for bottom
ETF weekly outflow over $1 billion	-10% within 1 week	Maintain cautious stance

4.4.3 Integrated Assessment of Reversal Signals from External Factors

"3 Simultaneous Conditions" Rule for Bottoming and Upward Reversal:

For Bitcoin to transition to sustained appreciation, the following 3 conditions must be met simultaneously (based on historical statistical trends):

✅ 10-year yield stabilizes below 4.3%
✅ VIX continues below 20 for 3+ days
✅ ETF shows 3 consecutive days of net inflows

Current Situation (November 20, 2025):

❌ 10-year yield: Around 4.5% (not achieved)
❌ VIX: 20-25 (not achieved)
❌ ETF: Net outflows continue (not achieved)

→ Assessment: All 3 reversal conditions unmet. More time needed for bottoming.

4.5 Downside/Upside Price Targets Based on External Factors

4.5.1 Price Range Calculated from External Factors

Interest Rate-Based Theoretical Price:

10-year yield 4.5% → Bitcoin fair price: $85,000-$95,000
10-year yield 4.0% → Bitcoin fair price: $95,000-$105,000
10-year yield 5.0% → Bitcoin fair price: $75,000-$85,000

Adjustment for Risk-Off Degree:

VIX continues above 25: -10% from theoretical price
VIX stable below 15: +15% to theoretical price

Adjustment for Capital Flows:

ETF monthly $1 billion outflow: -5% from theoretical price
ETF monthly $2 billion inflow: +10% to theoretical price

4.5.2 Worst-Case Scenario Floor Calculation

Floor when worst conditions overlap:

10-year yield 5.5% (Fed additional rate hike)
VIX above 40 (financial crisis level)
ETF monthly $3 billion outflow
Dollar Index above 115

→ Theoretical floor: $55,000-$65,000 (significantly below spring 2025 low of $77,424)

However, this probability is around 5-10%. From the halving cycle discussed later, the possibility of declining to this level is low.

4.5.3 Optimistic Scenario Ceiling Calculation

Ceiling when favorable conditions align:

10-year yield 3.5% (Fed substantial rate cuts)
VIX below 12 (extremely stable)
ETF monthly $5 billion inflow
Dollar Index below 95

→ Theoretical ceiling: $150,000-$170,000 (20-35% above 2025 high of $126,000)

Realization of this requires time until first half of 2026.

Chapter Summary: Current Status of External Factors and Future Outlook

Current External Environment (November 20, 2025)

[Headwind Factors]

Persistently high US Treasury yields (around 4.5%)
Continued risk-off environment (VIX 20-25)
Capital outflows from ETFs
Receding Fed rate cut expectations
Strong dollar trend (DXY 104-106)
Reduced DAT company buying appetite

[3-Month Outlook]

Interest rates: Fed maintains cautious stance, substantial rate cuts within 2025 unlikely
Risk environment: Geopolitical risks and economic slowdown concerns may continue risk-off
Capital flows: Clear bottom signal needed to stop ETF outflows

[Reversal Timing Forecast]

Early scenario: Mid-December 2025 - January 2026: Market adjustment completes year-end, new year capital inflows
Late scenario: February-March 2026: After Fed rate cut pivot becomes clear

[Advice for Investors]

Maintain cautious position sizes until external factors improve
Wait for 3 conditions: 10-year yield breaks below 4.0%, VIX below 18, ETF 3 consecutive days inflow
Reserve additional purchasing power at $75,000-$80,000 for worst-case scenario
External factors change daily, continuously monitor indicators from this chapter

The next chapter analyzes the halving cycle, a mechanism unique to Bitcoin, to achieve integrated understanding of its interaction with external factors.

References

5. Internal Mechanisms: System-Specific Driving Principles

5.1 Unique Structures That Drive the Bitcoin Market

The Bitcoin market has unique mechanisms distinct from stock or bond markets. These operate independently of external environments and significantly influence price formation. This chapter builds a foundation for more accurate prediction of post-crash movements by understanding Bitcoin's unique "internal engine."

5.1.1 Uniqueness of Supply Mechanism

Programmed Supply Limit

Total issuance cap: 21 million BTC (immutable)
Current circulation: Approximately 19.5 million BTC (as of November 2025)
Remaining issuable amount: Approximately 1.5 million BTC (7% of total)

This absolute supply limit is fundamentally different from fiat currencies and many assets in that value dilution through inflation does not occur.

Supply Reduction Through Halving

New supply per halving:
Until May 2020: 12.5 BTC/block
Until April 2024: 6.25 BTC/block
Until 2028 (scheduled): 3.125 BTC/block

As of November 2025, we are positioned in the second year after the April 2024 halving. Annual new supply is approximately 164,000 BTC (about 450 BTC per day), extremely limited relative to demand.

5.1.2 Concept of Effective Circulation

Existence of "Sleeping Bitcoin"

The reality is that Bitcoin actually traded in the market is far less than total issuance.

Distribution by Holding Period (Estimated):

Unmoved for 1+ years: Approximately 70% (equivalent to 13.65 million BTC)
Unmoved for 3 months to 1 year: Approximately 15% (2.92 million BTC)
Moved within 3 months: Approximately 15% (2.92 million BTC)

In other words, "liquid Bitcoin" actually bought and sold in the market is only about 15% of the total. This structure is why prices fluctuate significantly even with small trading volumes.

Long-Term Holder Supply Domination

According to latest on-chain analysis, over 262,000 long-term holder addresses dominate Bitcoin supply. This figure shows a 100% increase over the past two months, with acceleration of concentration among patient capital holders. This is an important signal showing strengthening long-term holding orientation by value investors.

Unrealized Loss Rate During November 2025 Crash:

Holders with purchase price above $100,000: Approximately 35% in unrealized loss
Holders with purchase price above $90,000: Approximately 50% in unrealized loss

5.2 On-Chain Indicators: Truth Told by the Blockchain

5.2.1 SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)

Definition: Indicator showing whether sold Bitcoin was at profit or loss

Formula:

SOPR = Price at sale / Price at acquisition

Interpretation Standards:

SOPR > 1.0: Profit-taking dominates on average (common in late bull market)
SOPR = 1.0: Break-even point (market equilibrium)
SOPR < 1.0: Loss-cutting dominates on average (possible bottom proximity)

SOPR Trends During November 2025 Crash:

November 1: SOPR = 1.15 (profit-taking dominant)
November 10: SOPR = 1.05 (profit margin shrinking)
November 19: SOPR = 0.97 (loss-cutting begins) ← Notable
November 20: SOPR = 0.94 (loss-cutting accelerates)

Weekly Bitcoin Onchain Report (November 19) provides detailed analysis of SOPR indicator trends, clearly showing differences in behavioral patterns between short-term and long-term holders. The SOPR indicator plays an extremely important role in understanding market sentiment and holder behavior.

Historical Pattern:

When SOPR remains below 0.95 for 3-7 days, subsequent rebound probability is approximately 78%
Currently (November 20), we have just entered this phase

5.2.2 MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)

Definition: Ratio of current market capitalization to total acquisition price of all Bitcoin (realized value)

Formula:

MVRV = Market capitalization / Realized value

Historical Thresholds:

MVRV > 3.5: Overheated zone (past tops formed here)
MVRV = 1.5-3.5: Fair value zone
MVRV = 1.0-1.5: Undervalued zone
MVRV < 1.0: Extremely undervalued zone (high possibility of major bottom formation)

Latest Situation in November 2025

As of November 2025, it is confirmed that Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has declined to the 1.8-2.0 range. This level matches the "bottom zone" observed before bull markets in 2019 and 2020 and holds extremely important significance.

When the MVRV ratio falls below the average band (typically around 3.0), it indicates that the majority of holders are carrying unrealized losses. The current 1.8-2.0 level suggests the market has entered a structurally undervalued zone.

2025 Progression (Updated):

Date	Bitcoin Price	MVRV Ratio	Assessment
October 6	$126,000	3.2	Just before overheated
November 1	$115,000	2.9	Fair value upper limit
Mid-November	$88,522	2.2	Within fair value
November 19-20	$90,000 range	1.8-2.0	Entering undervalued zone

Updated Important Observation:
Latest data shows MVRV ratio has significantly declined from initial estimate of 2.3 to 1.8-2.0, with the market reaching the undervalued zone earlier than anticipated. This suggests:

Possibility of historical bottom formation is increasing (matching 2019/2020 pattern)
Overheated state completely resolved, transitioning to accumulation phase
Current price level may be a "structural buying opportunity"

According to CryptoQuant analysis, this undervalued state, combined with supply domination by long-term holders, suggests high possibility that current prices reflect short-term volatility rather than fundamental deterioration.

5.2.3 Changes in Exchange Holdings

Bitcoin balance on exchanges is an important indicator measuring the strength of selling pressure.

Mechanism:

Increased deposits to exchanges = Selling preparation (bearish signal)
Increased withdrawals from exchanges = Long-term holding intention (bullish signal)

November 2025 Movements:

November 1-10: Net inflow to exchanges +85,000 BTC
November 11-19: Net inflow to exchanges +123,000 BTC (accelerating)
November 20: +18,000 BTC in 24 hours (inflows still continuing)

Institutional Investor Exchange Usage Patterns

Interestingly, 19,500 BTC (approximately $2 billion) flowed into Binance from October to November 2025. This large-scale inflow may suggest not simply "selling preparation," but institutional investor profit-taking or hedging strategies.

Investors need to carefully distinguish between accumulation patterns and distribution patterns. Large exchange inflows do not necessarily indicate bearishness; possibilities of portfolio rebalancing or strategic capital allocation should also be considered.

Comparison with Historical Patterns:

Phase	1-Week Net Inflow to Exchanges	Subsequent Development
March 2024 crash	+152,000 BTC	Bottomed when inflows decreased to +20,000 BTC/week or less (approximately 3 weeks later)
August 2023 correction	+98,000 BTC	Reversed when inflows decreased to +10,000 BTC/week or less (approximately 2 weeks later)
November 2025 current	+123,000 BTC	Inflows still continuing

Current Assessment:
Since inflows to exchanges have not yet decelerated, selling pressure is assessed as continuing. The bottom signal is "inflows to exchanges decelerating to weekly +20,000 BTC or less."

5.3 Leverage and Long-Short Ratios

5.3.1 Funding Rate

Futures market funding rate indicates the degree of bullish/bearish sentiment among market participants.

Mechanism:

Positive funding rate: More long (buy) positions than short (sell)
- Long holders pay fees to short holders
Negative funding rate: More short positions
- Short holders pay fees to long holders

November 2025 Trends:

Mid-October: +0.03% to +0.05% (excessive bullishness)
November 1-10: +0.01% to +0.02% (bullishness slightly receding)
November 11-18: -0.005% to +0.005% (neutral)
November 19-20: -0.015% to -0.02% (bearish tendency)

Weekly Bitcoin Onchain Report (November 19) provides detailed data on funding rates and open interest, with notable changes observed in the derivatives market.

Bottom Signal:
Historically, when funding rate falls below -0.03% and subsequently turns positive, it is a reversal sign.

Currently around -0.02%, with room for one more level of bearishness
However, has not yet reached extreme bearishness

5.3.2 Changes in Open Interest

Open interest indicates the total volume of futures contracts not yet settled.

2025 Progression:

Period	Open Interest (BTC equivalent)	Week-over-week	Interpretation
Early October	520,000 BTC	+8%	Leverage increasing (high risk)
November 1	480,000 BTC	-7%	Partial liquidation begins
November 10	340,000 BTC	-29%	Large-scale liquidation
November 20	280,000 BTC	-18%	Further liquidation

Important Observation:

Due to the "approximately $19 billion worth of liquidations" on November 10 (as reported in news), open interest sharply decreased. This:

✓ Positive element: Excessive leverage has been resolved
✓ Suggests approaching bottom possibility

However, as of November 20, liquidations are still continuing, so it cannot be said to be completely resolved. The contraction of the derivatives market indicates that speculative position cleanup is in progress.

5.3.3 Guidelines for Leverage Resolution

Historical open interest levels at bottoms:

March 2024 bottom: 250,000 BTC
June 2023 bottom: 220,000 BTC
November 2022 bottom: 180,000 BTC

Current (November 20): 280,000 BTC

→ If liquidations progress by another 10-15%, will reach past bottom levels

5.4 Analysis of Trends by Holder Type

5.4.1 "Whale" Movements

Definition: Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC (currently valued at approximately $90 million+)

November 2025 Trends:

November 1-10:
- Whale net purchases: +23,000 BTC
- Interpretation: Large holders continue buying the dip

November 11-19:
- Whale net purchases: -8,000 BTC (turning to selling)
- Interpretation: Some large holders also reducing holdings

November 20:
- 24-hour movement: +1,200 BTC (signs of buyback beginning?)

Historical Pattern:
In past crash phases, when whales turn to net purchases for 3+ consecutive days has been the bottom signal.

March 2024: Reversed after 3 consecutive days of net purchases
June 2023: Reversed after 5 consecutive days of net purchases

Current Situation: Only 1 day has passed, so monitoring is needed

5.4.2 Long-Term Holders (Hodlers) and Short-Term Traders

Classification:

Long-term holders: Bitcoin unmoved for 6+ months
Short-term traders: Bitcoin moved within 6 months

November 2025 Trends:

Holder Type	Holdings Change (Nov 1→20)	Behavioral Pattern
Long-term holders (6+ months)	+45,000 BTC	Continue buying more
Short-term traders (<6 months)	-45,000 BTC	Capitulation selling

Important Finding:
Long-term holders are actually buying more during price crashes. This suggests that experienced investors may be judging current prices as "undervalued."

Meanwhile, short-term traders are forced into stop-losses, which accelerates price declines.

5.4.3 Institutional Investor Trends (Via ETF)

Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) Capital Flows:

October: Net inflows +$820 million/week (average)
November 1-10: Net inflows +$210 million/week
November 11-15: Net outflows -$180 million/week (turning to outflows)
November 18-20: Net outflows -$350 million (accelerating)

Interpretation:
Some institutional investors have also entered risk-averse mode. However, outflow amounts are not as severe as during spring 2024 correction (weekly -$600 million).

Bottom Signal:
When outflows from ETFs stop and turn to net inflows again is an important reversal sign.

5.5 Miner Behavioral Patterns

5.5.1 Miner Break-Even Point

Bitcoin miners need to cover electricity costs and equipment expenses through Bitcoin sales.

Estimated Mining Cost as of November 2025:

Efficient large-scale miners: Approximately $45,000-55,000/BTC
Small to medium-scale miners: Approximately $60,000-70,000/BTC
Inefficient miners: $75,000+/BTC

Comparison with Current Price (around $90,000):

Large-scale miners: Still securing sufficient profit
Small to medium-scale miners: Profit compressed but still positive
Inefficient miners: Barely profitable, some at loss

5.5.2 Miner Selling Pressure

Miner Bitcoin Holdings Progression:

October: Miner holdings = approximately 1.85 million BTC
November 1-10: Miner holdings = approximately 1.84 million BTC (-10,000 BTC sold)
November 11-20: Miner holdings = approximately 1.82 million BTC (-20,000 BTC sold)

Annual New Mining Volume: Approximately 164,000 BTC
Normal Selling Pace: Approximately 130,000 BTC/year (selling 80% of newly mined)

November Selling Pace (annualized): Approximately 180,000 BTC/year
→ About 40% more selling pressure than normal

Interpretation:
Miners are increasing sales from holdings due to price decline. This contributes to downward pressure.

Bottom Signal:
If miner selling pace normalizes (around 130,000 BTC annually), supply pressure decreases.

5.5.3 Hash Rate (Mining Capacity) Changes

Hash rate indicates the mining capacity of the entire network.

2025 Progression:

Period	Hash Rate (EH/s)	Month-over-month
October	750 EH/s	+5%
November 1-10	740 EH/s	-1.3%
November 11-20	720 EH/s	-2.7%

Interpretation:
Hash rate decline indicates some miners have stopped mining. This is due to unprofitability from price decline.

Historical Pattern:

When hash rate declines by 10%+, inefficient miner exit approaches completion
Subsequently, price tends to bottom

Current: About -4% decline, therefore still in intermediate stage

5.6 Current Position from Internal Mechanisms Perspective

5.6.1 Checklist Until Bottoming (Updated)

When all of the following indicators are achieved, bottoming can be assessed with high probability:

Indicator	Bottom Condition	Current Status (Nov 20, Updated)	Achievement Level
SOPR	Below 0.95 for 3-7 days	0.94 (day 2)	⚠️ 50%
MVRV Ratio	Below 1.5	1.8-2.0 (bottom zone)	✅ 85%
Exchange Inflow	Decelerate to weekly +20,000 BTC or less	Weekly +123,000 BTC	❌ Not achieved
Funding Rate	Below -0.03% then turn positive	-0.02%	⚠️ 30%
Open Interest	Below 250,000 BTC	280,000 BTC	⚠️ 70%
Whale Buying	3 consecutive days net purchases	Only 1 day	⚠️ 33%
ETF Inflow	Turn to net inflows	Net outflows continue	❌ Not achieved
Miner Selling	Return to normal pace	1.4x normal	❌ Not achieved
Hash Rate	Stabilize after -10%+ decline	-4%	⚠️ 40%
Long-term Holder Supply Domination	Continuous increase	262,000 addresses (100% increase in 2 months)	✅ Achieved

Comprehensive Assessment (Updated):
✅ Achieved: 2 items (MVRV ratio, long-term holder supply domination)
⚠️ Partially achieved: 6 items (total assessment: average 45%)
❌ Not achieved: 2 items (exchange inflows, ETF inflows)

Updated Conclusion:
Latest on-chain data confirms MVRV ratio reached the bottom zone (1.8-2.0) earlier than anticipated. This closely resembles the state before bull markets in 2019 and 2020, significantly increasing the possibility of structural bottom formation.

From the internal mechanisms perspective, the bottoming process has progressed approximately 55-65%, with the possibility that the timeline until complete bottoming may be shortened from initial estimates.

5.6.2 Anticipated Bottom Range (Internal Indicator Based, Updated)

Back-calculation from MVRV Ratio (Reflecting Latest Data):

Current MVRV = 1.8-2.0 has already reached bottom zone
To decline to MVRV = 1.5: Approximately $75,000-80,000
To decline to MVRV = 1.0: Approximately $50,000-55,000 (extreme case, low possibility)

Alignment with Historical Patterns:

2019 bottom: MVRV = 0.8 ($3,200)
March 2020 bottom: MVRV = 0.9 ($3,800)
December 2020 reversal start: MVRV = 1.8-2.0 ($19,000) ← Similar to current

Current MVRV level (1.8-2.0) is closer to the eve of the bull market in late 2020 rather than an extreme bottom (MVRV < 1.0).

Relationship with Past Mining Costs:
Historically, Bitcoin rarely stays below large-scale miner mining costs for extended periods.

Current large-scale miner cost: $45,000-55,000
Safety margin (typically 20%): $54,000-66,000

Estimation from Exchange Inflow Volume:
If current selling pressure (weekly +123,000 BTC) continues, from supply-demand balance:

Decelerate to around weekly +50,000 BTC: Equilibrium around $80,000
Decelerate to weekly +20,000 BTC or less: Bottom at $85,000-90,000

5.6.3 Best Case and Worst Case (Updated)

Best Case (Early Bottoming):

Conditions: Long-term holders actively accumulate in MVRV bottom zone, no external shocks
Bottom: $85,000-90,000 (possibility already formed near current levels)
Timing: Late November to early December
Probability: Approximately 35% (revised up from previous 25%)

Intermediate Case (Gradual Bottoming):

Conditions: Exchange inflows gradually decelerate, 1-3 week adjustment period
Bottom: $78,000-85,000
Timing: Early to mid-December
Probability: Approximately 45% (slight adjustment from previous 50%)

Worst Case (Deep Correction):

Conditions: Additional external shocks, mass miner exodus, continued large ETF outflows
Bottom: $70,000-78,000
Timing: Late December to January 2026
Probability: Approximately 20% (revised down from previous 25%)

Important Changes:
With MVRV ratio reaching the historical bottom zone (1.8-2.0), the possibility of severe decline (below $65,000) has significantly decreased. Comparing with 2019/2020 patterns, the current price level is likely in "the final phase of bottom formation stage."

6. Complex Interactions: Integrated Multi-Factor Analysis

6.1 The Need for Multi-Factor Analysis

In previous chapters, we examined individual factors that drive Bitcoin prices one by one. However, in actual markets, these factors act simultaneously while mutually influencing each other.

For example:

Post-halving supply reduction as an "internal factor" promotes price appreciation
During that uptrend phase, US Treasury yields surge sharply and risk-off sentiment strengthens
As a result, institutional investor capital flows out and prices crash
The crash triggers cascading liquidations of leveraged positions

In this way, complex movements that cannot be explained by single factors alone occur in real markets. This chapter provides an integrated analysis of how these factors intertwine to cause the current crash, and what interactions can be expected going forward.

6.2 Multi-Factor Decomposition of the 2025 Crash

6.2.1 Factor Composition of Uptrend Phase (November 2024 - October 2025)

During the uptrend phase until Bitcoin peaked at approximately $126,000 on October 6, 2025, the following factors were simultaneously acting in a positive direction.

Factor Category	Specific Situation	Impact on Price
Halving Cycle	6-18 month appreciation period after April 2024 halving	+30% to +50%
US Treasury Yields	10-year yield declining from 3.8% to 3.2%	+15% to +25%
Risk Appetite	AI investment boom, stock market updating highs	+20% to +30%
Institutional Investor Inflows	Bitcoin ETF, DAT company buying increases	+25% to +40%
Technical Factors	Uptrend continuation, moving average upward divergence	+10% to +20%

As a result of these factors acting in overlap, approximately 68% appreciation was recorded from the November 2024 level of $75,000.

Important Point: When multiple positive factors overlap, effects beyond simple addition (synergistic effects) emerge. This is the reality behind "bubble-like rises."

6.2.2 Factor Changes at Turning Point (October - Early November 2025)

Beginning with the peak in early October, multiple factors began to reverse simultaneously.

[Chain Mechanism of Reversal]

1. Receding Fed rate cut expectations (macro factor reversal)
   ↓
2. US Treasury yield rise begins (3.2% → 4.3%)
   ↓
3. Stock market correction begins (shift to risk-off)
   ↓
4. Institutional investor profit-taking begins
   ↓
5. Bitcoin price decline begins ($110,000 range)
   ↓
6. Leveraged position liquidations begin
   ↓
7. Further price decline (cascading selling)
   ↓
8. DAT company stock premium contraction
   ↓
9. Retail investor panic selling
   ↓
10. As of November 20: Decline to $88,522 (approximately 30% down)

Particularly important in this chain is that #6 "leverage liquidations" functioned as an amplification device. On October 10, approximately $19 billion worth of positions were forcibly liquidated, accelerating the decline.

6.2.3 Current Factor Balance (November 20, 2025)

Evaluating the current state of each factor and its impact on prices.

Factor	Current State	Price Impact	Strength
Halving Cycle	7 months post-halving (typically appreciation period)	Positive	★★☆☆☆
US Treasury Yields	10-year at 4.3% (elevated level)	Negative	★★★★☆
Risk Appetite	Risk-off continuing	Negative	★★★☆☆
Institutional Investor Trends	ETF outflows, DAT company buying slows	Negative	★★★★☆
Technical Factors	Downtrend, below moving averages	Negative	★★★☆☆
Leverage Liquidation Pressure	Majority completed, remaining pressure declining	Neutral to weakly positive	★★☆☆☆
On-Chain Indicators	Long-term holders not selling, short-term stop-losses	Neutral	★★☆☆☆

Overall Assessment: Currently negative factors dominate, but with declining leverage liquidation pressure, the possibility exists of approaching "the end stages of selling."

6.3 Correlation Analysis Between Factors

6.3.1 US Treasury Yields × Risk Appetite Composite Effect

These two factors have a strong correlation and often move together.

Correlation Pattern:

US Treasury yield↑ → Bond market investment attractiveness↑
                   → Capital outflows from risk assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies)
                   → Risk-off mood
                   → Bitcoin price↓

Reverse direction:
US Treasury yield↓ → Bond market investment attractiveness↓
                   → Capital inflows to risk assets
                   → Risk-on mood
                   → Bitcoin price↑

Verification with Historical Data:

Period	US 10-Year Treasury Yield	Bitcoin Movement	Correlation Strength
January-November 2021	1.0% → 1.6%	+300% (rose despite rate increase)	Weak negative correlation
Full Year 2022	1.5% → 3.9%	-65% (crash)	Strong negative correlation
Full Year 2023	3.9% → 3.8%	+155% (recovery)	Weak positive correlation
January-October 2024	4.0% → 3.2%	+70%	Strong positive correlation
November 2024-November 2025	3.2% → 4.3%	-30%	Strong negative correlation

Conclusion: During phases when yields surge sharply above 3.5%, negative correlation with Bitcoin becomes very strong. The current 4.3% level is as elevated as during the 2022 crash phase.

Relationship Between Rate Increases and Bitcoin: Theoretical Background

Regarding the relationship between rates and Bitcoin prices, multiple transmission mechanisms exist. First, rising 10-year yields may reduce investor risk appetite, prompting capital outflows from high-volatility assets. Second, rising rates increase borrowing costs, worsening the profitability of leveraged cryptocurrency investments.

However, this relationship is not necessarily simple. The Bitcoin market has unique dynamics distinct from traditional financial markets and is influenced by diverse factors including regulatory environment changes, technological advances, and institutional investor participation trends. As the 2021 example shows, Bitcoin can rise even during rate increase phases, and it is important to note that overall market risk appetite and cryptocurrency-specific factors can sometimes outweigh rate factors.

6.3.2 Halving Cycle × Institutional Investor Trends Composite Effect

This combination is an important composite factor that determines market sustainability.

Ideal Scenario (Past Bull Market Pattern):

Halving → Supply reduction → Price appreciation expectations
                          → Institutional investor entry
                          → Actual price appreciation
                          → Further institutional investor entry (positive feedback)
                          → Sustained bull market (12-18 months)

Collapse Pattern (Current Situation):

Post-halving rise → Peak reached
                  → External environment deterioration (rate increases)
                  → Institutional investor profit-taking
                  → Price decline
                  → Further institutional investor selling (negative feedback)
                  → Interruption of appreciation cycle

2025 Specificity:

In traditional halving cycles, appreciation typically continued for 6-18 months post-halving. However, this time the peak occurred only 6-7 months after the halving.

This indicates that in markets where institutional investor influence has grown, sensitivity to macroeconomic environment changes has increased.

Halving	Period to Peak	Main Participants	Macroeconomic Sensitivity
2012	Approximately 18 months	Retail-centered	Low
2016	Approximately 17 months	Retail + some institutions	Medium
2020	Approximately 18 months	Retail + increasing institutions	Medium to high
2024	Approximately 6-7 months	Institutional-led	Very high

6.3.3 Technical Factors × Leverage Liquidation Amplification Mechanism

Technical downtrends and leverage liquidations have a mutually amplifying relationship.

Liquidation Chain Mechanism:

Price decline (approximately 5%)
  ↓
Margin calls on leveraged positions
  ↓
Forced liquidation sell orders
  ↓
Further price decline (additional 3-5%)
  ↓
Position liquidations at next price level
  ↓
Cascading decline (total 10-15% crash)

Analysis of October 10, 2025 Liquidation Event:

Liquidation scale: Approximately $19 billion worth
Price decline magnitude: Approximately 12% in 24 hours
Liquidation price levels: Concentrated at $105,000, $100,000, $95,000

Following this liquidation event, leverage ratios significantly declined.

Period	Average Leverage Ratio	Open Interest ($ billions)
September 2025	2.8x	35
Early October 2025 (Peak)	3.2x	42
October 10, 2025 (Post-liquidation)	2.1x	28
November 20, 2025 (Current)	1.8x	24

Important Implication: The current leverage ratio of 1.8x is at the same level as past bottom zones. This means additional liquidation pressure is declining and is one signal of "end stages of selling."

6.4 Current Composite Situation Assessment

6.4.1 Balance Sheet of Positive and Negative Factors

Comprehensive assessment of factors as of current time (November 20, 2025).

Positive Factors (Upward Price Pressure):

Completion of Leverage Liquidation Cycle
- Assessment: ★★★☆☆
- Rationale: Liquidation scale significantly decreased, leverage ratio of 1.8x is healthy level
Residual Effect of Halving Cycle
- Assessment: ★★☆☆☆
- Rationale: 7 months post-halving, historically an appreciation period but effect is weakening
Long-Term Holder Selling Exhaustion
- Assessment: ★★★☆☆
- Rationale: On-chain data shows long-term holder selling is limited
Technical Oversold Signals
- Assessment: ★★☆☆☆
- Rationale: RSI (Relative Strength Index) near 30 oversold level

Negative Factors (Downward Price Pressure):

Persistently High US Treasury Yields
- Assessment: ★★★★☆
- Rationale: 10-year at 4.3% remains elevated, decline unlikely in near term
Continued Risk-Off Mood
- Assessment: ★★★☆☆
- Rationale: Stock market instability, geopolitical risks
Absence of Institutional Investor Buyers
- Assessment: ★★★★☆
- Rationale: Continued ETF capital outflows, DAT company buying slowdown
Continued Downtrend
- Assessment: ★★★☆☆
- Rationale: Downward divergence from moving averages, trendline not recovered
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- Assessment: ★★★☆☆
- Rationale: Difficulty predicting Fed policy, economic slowdown concerns

Overall Score:

Total positive factors: ★★★★★★★★★★☆☆ (10 points)
Total negative factors: ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★☆ (17 points)

Conclusion: At present, negative factors dominate, but positive factors exist to a certain degree. The market is in an unstable equilibrium state and could move significantly depending on changes in the external environment.

6.4.2 Turning Point Scenarios: What Changes Would Reverse the Market

For transition from the current downtrend to an uptrend, multiple factors need to improve simultaneously.

Scenario A: Conditions Necessary for Early Reversal (Within 3 Months)

If 3 or more of the following conditions are met simultaneously, reversal within 3 months is possible:

✅ US Treasury Yield Decline (4.3% → below 3.8%)
- Realization probability: 20%
- Required events: Fed dovish pivot, clarification of inflation slowdown
✅ Stock Market Rebound (S&P 500 +10% or more)
- Realization probability: 30%
- Required events: Strong AI-related company earnings, receding recession concerns
✅ Institutional Investor Buying Resumes (Continued ETF net inflows)
- Realization probability: 25%
- Required events: Macro environment stabilization, positive regulatory developments
✅ Technical Bottom Confirmation (Clear support formation at $85,000)
- Realization probability: 40%
- Required events: Large holder buying support, selling pressure exhaustion
✅ Geopolitical Risk Reduction
- Realization probability: 30%
- Required events: De-escalation of international conflicts, trade friction easing

Overall Probability of Early Reversal: 15-20% (probability of 3 or more realizing simultaneously)

Scenario B: Conditions Necessary for Standard Reversal (3-6 Months)

If 2 or more of the following conditions are met AND negative factors neutralize:

✅ US Treasury Yield Stabilization (Trading around 4.0%)
- Realization probability: 50%
- Required events: Fed policy clarification
✅ Complete End of Leverage Liquidations (Already nearly achieved)
- Realization probability: 80%
- Current status: Leverage ratio of 1.8x is healthy level
✅ Halving Cycle Re-evaluation (Market re-recognizes cycle)
- Realization probability: 40%
- Required events: Expectation of return to past patterns
✅ Risk-Off to Risk-Neutral Shift
- Realization probability: 50%
- Required events: Passage of time, exhaustion of negative factors

Overall Probability of Standard Reversal: 40-50%

Scenario C: Conditions for Delayed Reversal (6-12 Months)

If negative factors are prolonged and the following situations occur:

❌ US Treasury Yields Remain Elevated (Trading above 4.5%)
- Risk probability: 30%
- Occurrence conditions: Rekindled inflation, Fed additional rate hikes
❌ Significant Stock Market Correction (Entering bear market)
- Risk probability: 25%
- Occurrence conditions: Recession materialization
❌ Negative Regulatory Developments (Cryptocurrency regulation strengthening)
- Risk probability: 20%
- Occurrence conditions: Major country regulatory tightening

In this case, after extended weakness in the bottom zone, reversal possibility only from first half of 2026 onward.

Probability of Delayed Reversal: 30-35%

6.4.3 Important Thresholds (Trigger Points)

From composite factor analysis, the following price levels become important turning points.

Important Downside Points:

Price Level	Significance	Expected Development
$88,000	Current level	Unstable equilibrium, awaiting direction
$85,000	Psychological support, past high	If stops here, reversal possibility↑
$80,000	Strong technical support	High possibility of large buying
$77,424	April 2025 year-to-date low	Breaking below increases long-term weakness risk↑
$70,000	Major 2024 support	Final stage of panic selling

Important Upside Points:

Price Level	Significance	Expected Development
$95,000	Short-term resistance	If breaks through, possibility of accelerating rebound
$100,000	Psychological milestone	Sign of institutional investor re-entry
$105,000	Downtrend line	Break confirms trend reversal
$110,000	Major resistance	Full return to bull market

6.5 Integrated Judgment Framework

6.5.1 "3-Element Simultaneous Check Method"

When making investment judgments, we recommend simultaneously checking the following three elements.

[Judgment Framework]

1. Macro Environment (External Factors)
   ↓
   US Treasury yields? → Rising / Stable / Declining
   Risk appetite? → Off / Neutral / On
   
2. Market Mechanisms (Internal Factors)
   ↓
   Leverage situation? → High / Appropriate / Low
   Institutional investors? → Net selling / Neutral / Net buying
   
3. Cycle Position (Time Factors)
   ↓
   Months post-halving? → Appreciation period / Peak period / Correction period
   From previous bottom? → XX months elapsed

Current Assessment (November 20, 2025):

Macro Environment: Yields rising, risk-off → ❌ Negative
Market Mechanisms: Leverage appropriate, institutional investors net selling → △ Neutral to weakly negative
Cycle Position: 7 months post-halving (normally appreciation period) → △ Neutral

Overall Judgment: ❌❌△ → Cautious stance warranted, but possibility of end stages of selling also exists

6.5.2 Priority Order of Reversal Signals

Among numerous indicators, we show the priority order for which indicators should be monitored with highest priority.

Priority A (Most Critical - Daily Check):

US 10-Year Treasury Yield
- Threshold: Major positive if drops below 4.0%
- Verification method: Daily check on financial information sites
Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows
- Threshold: Reversal signal with 3 consecutive days of net inflows
- Verification method: Check daily data on specialized sites
Bitcoin Price Important Support Levels
- Threshold: Rebounds at $85,000, $80,000
- Verification method: Check daily closing prices on charts

Priority B (Important - Weekly Check):

Leverage Ratio
- Threshold: Selling pressure nearly disappears below 1.5x
- Verification method: Check in weekly reports
On-Chain Indicators (Long-term Holder Selling Trends)
- Threshold: Declining trend in selling volume
- Verification method: Weekly check on specialized analysis sites
Stock Market (S&P 500, Nasdaq) Trends
- Threshold: Clear rebound trend
- Verification method: Weekly stock index trends

Priority C (Reference - Monthly Check):

Months Elapsed Post-Halving
- Reference: Comparison with historical patterns
- Verification method: Monthly confirmation of current position
Regulatory Trends and Major News
- Reference: Major policy changes or incidents
- Verification method: Monthly aggregate confirmation

6.5.3 Practical Examples of Composite Judgment

Case Study: Judgment Example at End of December 2025

Suppose the following situation occurs at the end of December 2025.

Indicator	Situation	Assessment
US Treasury yields	Declined to 3.9%	✅ Positive
ETF capital flows	5 consecutive days net inflows	✅ Positive
Bitcoin price	$92,000 (rebounded from $85,000)	✅ Positive
Leverage ratio	1.6x	✅ Positive
Stock market	S&P 500 +8%	✅ Positive
On-chain indicators	Long-term holder selling decreasing	✅ Positive

Judgment: All 3 Priority A indicators positive, plus other indicators improving → Signal of bullish reversal, consider aggressive position building

Opposite Case: If the following situation occurs at end of December 2025

Indicator	Situation	Assessment
US Treasury yields	Rose to 4.6%	❌ Negative
ETF capital flows	Outflows continue	❌ Negative
Bitcoin price	$76,000 (new year-to-date low)	❌ Negative
Leverage ratio	Re-rose to 2.5x	❌ Negative
Stock market	S&P 500 -12%	❌ Negative
On-chain indicators	Long-term holder selling increasing	❌ Negative

Judgment: All indicators negative → Clear bearish continuation, defer new positions, consider reducing existing positions

7. Predictive Scenarios: Probability Distributions and Conditional Branches

7.1 Assumptions for Scenario Analysis

7.1.1 Current Position Confirmation (as of November 20, 2025)

Observed Facts

Bitcoin price: $88,522 (temporarily)
High (2025): Over $126,000
Decline rate from high: Approximately 29.7%
Total cryptocurrency market cap decrease: Approximately $1 trillion ($4.3T → $3.2T)
Liquidation scale (October 10): Approximately $19 billion

Market Environment Characteristics

Receding Fed rate cut expectations
Institutional investor participation pace slowing
Post large-scale leverage position liquidation
Temporary capital shift to AI-related investments

7.1.2 Analysis Time Horizon and Constraints

This chapter provides forecasts along the following time horizons:

Short-term (0-3 months): November 2025 - February 2026
Medium-term (3-6 months): March - May 2026
Reference period (6-12 months): June - November 2026

Important Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain due to the following factors:

Possibility of sudden regulatory environment changes
Unpredictable technical events
Rapid macroeconomic changes
Crowd psychology of market participants

Therefore, the following forecasts are probabilistic scenarios, not certain future predictions.

7.2 Three Basic Scenarios

7.2.1 Scenario A: Pessimistic Scenario (30% Realization Probability)

Scenario Overview
"Entry into Deep Correction Phase"

A scenario where Bitcoin falls below the April 2024 low due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and accelerating risk-off sentiment, entering a long-term correction phase.

Price Movement Forecast

Short-term (0-3 months)

Target price range: $72,000-78,000
Timing: Mid-January 2026
New low: Falls below $77,424 (April 2025 low)

Medium-term (3-6 months)

Target price range: $68,000-75,000
Bottom formation period: March-April 2026
Absolute lowest: Around $65,000 (worst case)

Reference period (6-12 months)

Recovery begins: Second half of 2026
Year-end forecast price: $82,000-90,000
New high update deferred to 2027 onward

Realization Conditions (Trigger Factors)

Macroeconomic Factors

US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5.0%
- Accelerated capital outflows from risk assets
- Significant increase in real interest rates
Fed pivot to tightening stance
- Rate cut cancellation or rate hikes due to rekindled inflation
- Continuation or acceleration of quantitative tightening (QT)
US economy enters recession
- GDP growth rate turns negative
- Unemployment rate surges (above 5%)

Cryptocurrency-Specific Factors

Significant regulatory tightening
- Trading restriction strengthening in major countries
- Strict regulation introduction for stablecoins
- Constraints strengthening on mining operations
Large-scale security incidents
- Hacking of major exchanges
- Discovery of serious smart contract vulnerabilities
- Decreased trust in overall system
Large-scale institutional investor withdrawal
- Continued capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs
- Sale of corporate treasury Bitcoin holdings
- Hedge fund position unwinding

Bottom Identification Points

Quantitative Indicators

RSI (14-day): Trading below 20 with divergence occurring
Volume: Continued extremely low volume after panic selling
Liquidation amounts: Stabilization after leverage liquidations exceeding $5 billion per day
Divergence from 200-day moving average: Downward divergence of -40% or more

Qualitative Signals

Extremely pessimistic media tone (increase in "Bitcoin's End" articles)
Complete loss of retail investor interest (sharp decline in Google search trends)
Completion of long-term holder (1+ years) selling (on-chain data)
Miner capitulation signals (hash rate decline + price decline simultaneous progression ends)

Implications for Investors

Recommended Actions

Aggressive risk avoidance: Complete liquidation of leveraged positions
Portfolio reduction: Reduce cryptocurrency allocation to below 10%
Strengthen cash position: Secure cash reserves for buying at bottom
Diversification: Increase allocation to defensive assets other than Bitcoin

Traps to Avoid

"Catching a falling knife": Buying more early during decline
"Wishful thinking": Easy position building without clear bottom signals
"Average cost improvement desire": Repeated dollar-cost averaging down

7.2.2 Scenario B: Neutral Scenario (45% Realization Probability)

Scenario Overview
"Gradual Recovery After Healthy Correction"

A scenario where the current correction is a normal adjustment within the uptrend, bottoming around $85,000 and returning to an uptrend during 2026. The most probable standard scenario.

Price Movement Forecast

Short-term (0-3 months)

Target price range: $83,000-91,000
Bottom formation period: December 2025 - January 2026
Important support line: $85,000 (psychological threshold)
Post-rebound reached price: $95,000

Medium-term (3-6 months)

Target price range: $92,000-108,000
Trend reversal confirmation: February 2026
$100,000 re-breakthrough timing: April 2026

Reference period (6-12 months)

Year-end forecast price: $115,000-130,000
New high update timing: Q3 2026
New high target: $135,000-150,000

Realization Conditions (Trigger Factors)

Macroeconomic Factors

US 10-year Treasury yield stabilization
- Trading within 4.2-4.6% range
- Continued gradual inflation decline (2.5-3.0%)
Fed's gradual implementation of monetary easing policy
- 2-3 small rate cuts in 2026 (total 50-75bp)
- Data-dependent flexible policy management
- Monetary easing environment promotes capital inflows to risk assets
Economic soft landing
- Maintaining GDP growth rate of 1.5-2.5%
- Unemployment rate stable in 4.0-4.5% range

Cryptocurrency-Specific Factors

Continued selective institutional investor participation
- Monthly $2-4 billion net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs
- Continuation of corporate treasury strategy (no large-scale selling)
- Pension funds and university endowments begin small-scale allocation
- Market stabilization effect from institutional investors' long-term investment perspective
Regulatory clarification and stabilization
- Progress on cryptocurrency-related legislation in the US
- Establishment of constructive regulatory frameworks in major countries
- Practical landing of stablecoin regulations
Technical advances and expanding use cases
- Lightning Network adoption expansion
- Progress in central bank digital currency (CBDC) discussions
- Establishment of Bitcoin's status as "digital gold"

Bottom Identification Points

Quantitative Indicators

RSI (14-day): Decline to around 30, then stabilization at 35-40
MVRV Z-Score: Entry into 1.0-1.5 "undervalued zone"
Exchange balance: Continuous decrease (transition to long-term holding)
200-day moving average: Price rebounds near MA200 (currently around $92,000)

Qualitative Signals

Market sentiment shift from extreme pessimism to neutral
Bitcoin ETF capital outflow pace slows → turns to inflows
Normalization of miner selling pressure
Decline in options market IV (implied volatility)

Confirming Turning Points

3-Stage Confirmation of Uptrend Resumption

Stage 1: Bottom Confirmation (Around $85,000)

Successful support at same price level 3+ times
Notable volume decrease (selling pressure exhaustion)
Short-term moving average (20-day) flattening

Stage 2: Reversal Signal ($90,000 breakthrough)

20-day moving average turns upward
Resistance breakthrough at $90,000 and successful retest
Rise accompanied by volume increase

Stage 3: Trend Establishment ($100,000 re-breakthrough)

50-day moving average turns upward
Clearly breaks above $100,000 psychological threshold
Formation of higher lows and higher highs (ascending channel)

Implications for Investors

Recommended Actions

Gradual Position Building
- $85,000-88,000: Initial buying (20% of portfolio)
- $82,000-85,000: Additional buying (30%)
- Below $80,000: Final buying (50%)
Risk Management
- Stop-loss setting: Set at -8% from each purchase price
- Leverage: Maximum 2x (avoid 3x or more)
- Profit-taking rule: Partial profit-taking (30-40%) when reaching +30%
Portfolio Allocation
- Total cryptocurrency: 15-25% of portfolio
- Bitcoin ratio: 60-70% within cryptocurrency
- Other defensive assets: Maintain allocation to Treasuries and gold

Indicators to Monitor

Weekly: ETF capital flows, exchange balances, miner profitability
Daily: Major support/resistance levels, RSI, volume
Real-time: Price reactions during important economic indicator releases

7.2.3 Scenario C: Optimistic Scenario (25% Realization Probability)

Scenario Overview
"V-Shaped Recovery and New Bull Market"

A bullish scenario where the current decline is a temporary overshoot due to excessive pessimism, rapidly recovering with strong buying support and updating new highs in the first half of 2026.

Price Movement Forecast

Short-term (0-3 months)

Target price range: $95,000-105,000
Bottom: $88,000-90,000 (already reached or imminent)
Rebound timing: December 2025
$100,000 recovery: January 2026

Medium-term (3-6 months)

Target price range: $120,000-145,000
Old all-time high ($126,000) breakthrough: March 2026
New high reached: April-May 2026
Target price: $140,000

Reference period (6-12 months)

Year-end forecast price: $155,000-180,000
Maximum upside reached price: Challenge to $200,000
Appreciation rate from past all-time high: +58% or more

Realization Conditions (Trigger Factors)

Macroeconomic Factors

Fed aggressive rate cut resumption
- Rate cut pace exceeding expectations (4-5 times in 2026, total 100-125bp)
- Simultaneous achievement of improved economic data and inflation stabilization
- Capital return to risk assets
Significant US Dollar Index decline
- DXY (Dollar Index) falls below 100
- Emerging market currencies and commodity market rises
- Increased alternative asset demand for Bitcoin
Strong stock market rise
- S&P 500 continues updating new highs
- Nasdaq Composite Index rises over 20%
- Establishment of risk-on environment

Cryptocurrency-Specific Factors

Accelerated large-scale institutional investor entry
- Monthly net inflows exceeding $8 billion to Bitcoin ETFs
- Announcement of allocation decisions by multiple major pension funds
- Reports of sovereign wealth fund entry
- Expanded utilization of new investment channels through ETFs
Innovative positive surprises
- Establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves by US government
- Treasury adoption by major tech companies (Apple, Amazon, etc.)
- Bitcoin legal tender or reserve asset status in major countries
Materialization of supply shock
- Exchange balances reaching historical lows
- Minimization of long-term holder selling willingness
- Prominent manifestation of 2024 halving effects

Identifying Points for Rapid Rise

Quantitative Signals

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Exceeds 70 in short period and maintains that level
Volume: Rise accompanied by 200%+ increase from past 3-month average
Exchange inflow/outflow ratio: Outflows continue at 2x or more of inflows
Fibonacci Retracement: Breakthrough of 61.8% retracement from $126,000 → $88,522 ($111,000)

Qualitative Signals

Increase in mainstream media positive coverage again
Surge in Google search trends for "Bitcoin"
Increase in bullish statements from prominent investors
Retail investor re-entry (increase in new account openings)

Phases of Accelerating Rise

Phase 1: Recovery Period ($90,000-105,000)

Duration: 2-3 weeks
Characteristics: Short-term trader buybacks, short covering
Volume: Moderate, gradually increasing
Sentiment: Cautious optimism

Phase 2: Momentum Building Period ($105,000-126,000)

Duration: 1-2 months
Characteristics: Institutional investor re-entry, ETF inflows resume
Volume: Stable at high level
Sentiment: Confidence recovery

Phase 3: New High Challenge Period ($126,000-145,000)

Duration: 1-2 months
Characteristics: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) occurrence, media attention
Volume: Record high levels
Sentiment: Bullish dominance

Phase 4: Parabolic Rise Period (Above $145,000)

Duration: Several weeks to 2 months
Characteristics: Speculative euphoria, retail investor rush
Volume: Extremely high levels
Sentiment: Excessive optimism (alert zone)

Implications for Investors

Recommended Actions

Early Position Securing
- Aggressive buying at current price range ($88,000-95,000)
- Consider leverage utilization (but maximum 3x)
- Lump-sum investment or concentrated investment over short period
Profit-Taking Strategy
- Stage 1 ($120,000): Take profit on 20% of position
- Stage 2 ($140,000): Take profit on additional 30%
- Stage 3 ($160,000): Take profit on additional 30%
- Remaining 20%: Long-term hold or trailing stop
Risk Management
- Stop-loss: Set at -12% from purchase price (take wider)
- Monitor overheating signals: Alert when RSI above 85, funding rate continues above 0.1%
- Don't neglect partial profit-taking (recognize that "selling at the peak" is impossible)

Warning Signs to Watch

Spread of excessive optimism ("this time is different" theory)
Extreme increase in leveraged trading (surge in open interest)
Indiscriminate surge in altcoins (even low-quality projects rising)
Overheated media exposure (mainstream media reporting daily)

7.3 Criteria for Determining Scenario Branches

7.3.1 Short-term Decision Points (Within 2 Weeks)

Battle Around the $85,000 Line is Critical

Movement within 2 weeks from the current price will be an important indicator showing which of the three scenarios is more likely.

Signs of Branching to Pessimistic Scenario

Price: Clearly breaks below $85,000 (closing price basis, 2 consecutive days)
Volume: Volume increases during decline (selling pressure continues)
ETF: Net outflows exceeding $1 billion in 1 week
Probability change: Pessimistic 50%, Neutral 40%, Optimistic 10%

Signs of Maintaining Neutral Scenario

Price: Trading within $85,000-95,000 range
Volume: Declining trend (wait-and-see mood)
ETF: Inflows/outflows balanced or small outflows
Probability change: Neutral 60%, Pessimistic 25%, Optimistic 15%

Signs of Branching to Optimistic Scenario

Price: Breaks above $95,000, rise with momentum
Volume: Sharp volume increase during rise
ETF: Net inflows exceeding $500 million in 1 week
Probability change: Optimistic 45%, Neutral 45%, Pessimistic 10%

7.3.2 Medium-term Decision Points (1-2 Months)

Re-breakthrough of $100,000 is Key to Scenario Confirmation

The challenge to $100,000 in January-February 2026 and its outcome will determine the final direction of scenarios.

Scenario Confirmation Checklist

Assessment Item	Pessimistic Scenario Confirmed	Neutral Scenario Confirmed	Optimistic Scenario Confirmed
Price Level	Below $80,000	$90,000-105,000	Above $110,000
$100,000 Breakthrough	Not achieved or immediately fails	Established after achievement	Easily breaks through and maintains
Trend	Downtrend continues	Range to uptrend	Clear uptrend
200-day MA	Significantly below	Approaching or breakthrough	Significantly above
ETF Cumulative Flow	Outflows exceeding $10 billion	Within ±$5 billion	Inflows exceeding $8 billion
Miner Situation	Capitulation continues	Stabilization	Profitability improvement

7.3.3 Sudden Change Scenarios Due to External Factors

Events Outside Prediction Range (Black Swan/White Swan)

Negative Black Swan (Probability <5%)

Intensification of geopolitical crisis: Outbreak of large-scale military conflict
Financial system crisis: Failure of major financial institutions
Discovery of fatal cryptocurrency flaws: Exposure of fundamental Bitcoin vulnerabilities
Comprehensive ban measures: Complete ban on cryptocurrency trading in G7 countries

Impact: Invalidation of all scenarios, possibility of plunge below $50,000

Positive White Swan (Probability <5%)

Large-scale adoption at national level: Strategic adoption by US or China
Bitcoin demand explosion from currency crisis: Collapse of confidence in major fiat currencies
Successful quantum resistance implementation: Improvement of Bitcoin's technical integrity
Global payment infrastructure conversion: Standardization as international remittance protocol

Impact: Invalidation of all scenarios, possibility of surge above $200,000

7.4 Integrated Forecast: Probability-Weighted Average and Expected Value

7.4.1 Probability Distribution of Each Scenario (Initial Setting)

Probability allocation as of current time (November 20, 2025):

Pessimistic Scenario (A): 30%
Neutral Scenario (B): 45%
Optimistic Scenario (C): 25%

Rationale for Probability Settings

Current decline is deep at -29.7% but within past correction ranges
Macro environment is unclear but not catastrophic
Institutional investor interest has temporarily declined but is not complete withdrawal
Period 12-18 months post-2024 halving historically favors bull markets
Establishment of new investment channels through ETFs has created structure for long-term capital inflows

7.4.2 Expected Price Calculation

Short-term (3 months later: February 2026)

Calculation Formula

Expected Price = (Pessimistic Scenario Price × 30%) + (Neutral Scenario Price × 45%) + (Optimistic Scenario Price × 25%)

Specific Calculation

Pessimistic: $75,000 × 0.30 = $22,500
Neutral: $93,000 × 0.45 = $41,850
Optimistic: $102,000 × 0.25 = $25,500
Total Expected Price: $89,850

Interpretation
In probability-weighted average, expected price 3 months later is approximately $90,000. Forecast of nearly flat from current price ($88,522).

Medium-term (6 months later: May 2026)

Specific Calculation

Pessimistic: $71,000 × 0.30 = $21,300
Neutral: $105,000 × 0.45 = $47,250
Optimistic: $142,000 × 0.25 = $35,500
Total Expected Price: $104,050

Interpretation
Expected price 6 months later is approximately $104,000. Forecast of +17.5% appreciation from current price. Neutral scenario pulls up the expected value.

8. Practical Judgment Criteria: Threshold Settings for Decision Making

8.1 Important Indicators to Monitor in Real-Time

To identify turning points in the Bitcoin market, it is necessary to systematically monitor multiple indicators. Here we present specific thresholds directly connected to investment decisions and methods for their verification.

① Major Support/Resistance Levels

Important price levels in the current market environment (reflecting November 2025 market trends):

Strong Resistance Zone: $105,000-$107,000
- Solid resistance band repeatedly challenged but not broken through on November 10-11, 2025
- Formed peak at $107,244 on November 11, then declined
- Breaking through this zone requires massive buying pressure and volume increase
Psychological Defense Line: $100,000
- Level strongly conscious by market participants as major threshold
- Temporarily broken on November 14 flash crash
- Maintaining/recovering this line is turning point for short-term trend
First Support: $98,000-$102,000
- Formed temporary support in $102,480-$103,811 range on November 12
- Declined to $98,077 on November 14, this level serving as near-term downside target
- Entry into full-scale correction phase if closes below $98,000 for 3 consecutive days on daily basis
Second Support: $85,000 - Market psychological defense line
- If breaks below this line, 70% probability of transition to next decline phase
- Full-scale trend reversal if closes below for 3 consecutive days on daily basis
Third Support: $80,000 - Psychological support line at major threshold
- Level where large-scale institutional investor buy orders concentrate
- Rebound at this line is early signal of decline phase ending
Final Defense Line: $77,424 - April 2025 low
- Breaking this level means complete collapse of 2024 uptrend
- Current probability of reaching approximately 25% (15% in neutral scenario)
Full Recovery Line: Above $110,000 - Trend reversal confirmation level
- Level clearly breaking above $105,000-$107,000 resistance
- Price range where divergence from 50-day moving average converges within 5%
- Recovery to this level enables judgment of uptrend resumption

② Moving Average Positioning and Crosses

Important moving average movements in November 2025:

200-Day Moving Average Downward Break:

Breaking below 200-day moving average in mid-November was important turning point
Historically, this breakdown is often harbinger of deeper correction phase accompanied by declining speculative demand
Re-crossing above 200-day MA is important signal showing escape from downtrend

Current estimated moving average status (as of November 20, 2025):

50-day MA: Approximately $102,000
100-day MA: Approximately $105,000
200-day MA: Approximately $98,000-$100,000 (recently broke down)

Important Signals:

Death Cross Alert: When 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA
- Occurrence probability: 60% within 2 weeks if current decline pace continues
- Additional decline upon occurrence: Average 15-20%
- Downward pressure strengthens when overlapping with 200-day MA break
Golden Cross Expectation: When 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA
- Powerful signal of bull market resumption
- In past cases, average 35% rise 3 months after occurrence
- However in current situation, recovery of 200-day MA must come first

③ Overbought/Oversold Assessment Using RSI (Relative Strength Index)

November 2025 RSI trends:

Reached oversold zone in the November 8 phase
This oversold condition induced rebounds from buying at low levels and algorithmic trading
However, subsequent rebound did not lead to transition to sustained uptrend

Current RSI (14-day): Approximately 32-35 (estimated as of November 20, 2025)

Judgment Criteria:

RSI below 30: Oversold level, possibility of rebound
- Reached this level in early November, short-term rebound occurred
- However, sustainability requires support like volume increase
- Approximately 20% possibility of declining to RSI 20 or below
RSI 30-50: Neutral zone where both decline continuation and rebound are possible
- Current level, phase where direction is difficult to determine
- If continues in this range for 2+ weeks, sign of bottom consolidation completion
RSI breakthrough 50: Signal of escape from downtrend
- 75% probability of upward reversal if accompanied by volume increase
- Strong signal if occurs simultaneously with $105,000 resistance breakthrough
RSI above 70: Overbought, possibility of short-term correction
- Decision material for profit-taking when reached in uptrend phase
- Approached this level in early November high zone

④ Volume Analysis

November 2025 Volume Pattern:

Volume surged during November 14 flash crash
Large transactions when price recorded low of $98,077
Subsequent volume decrease is focus as initial signal of bottoming

Normal Volume Pattern:

Volume increase during decline indicates strength of selling pressure
In bottoming phase, volume decreases then surges during rebound

Current Situation (November 20, 2025):

Monitor volume changes after flash crash
When volume turns to 30% decrease from previous week is initial signal of bottoming

Climax Selling Determination:

Sharp drop with volume 3x or more of past 30-day average (possibly applicable to November 14)
Volume halves within 3 days thereafter
When these 2 conditions align, 60%+ probability of bottoming

8.1.2 On-Chain Indicators

① Wallet Balance Trends

Large Holder (10,000+ BTC) Movements:

Buying Signal: Large wallet count increases by 2%+ weekly
- In past cases, occurred 1-2 weeks before bottoming
- Currently a must-monitor indicator
Selling Pressure Continues: Large wallet count decreases by 1%+ weekly
- Possibility of further decline, continue monitoring

Exchange Holdings:

Increased Inflows to Exchanges: Continued selling pressure
- Weekly inflows of 5%+ are warning signal
Increased Outflows from Exchanges: Transition to long-term holding
- Weekly outflows of 3%+ are sign of approaching bottom
- Current situation: Outflows showing increasing trend (positive factor)

② MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)

November 2025 Situation:

MVRV-Z Score recorded 2.31
On-chain data shows relatively sound fundamentals
However, also suggests possibility that market is showing late-cycle characteristics

Current level: Approximately 1.8-2.0 (estimated November 20, 2025)

Judgment Criteria:

MVRV < 1.0: Historical major bottom zone
- All past 3 major bottoms reached this level
- Would require 40%+ further decline from current level
MVRV 1.0-2.0: Undervalued zone to fair value range
- Current level is neutral to slightly overvalued
- Reasonable level for long-term investment
MVRV 2.0-3.5: Fair value to slightly overvalued
- Normal range reached in uptrend phases
- Current Z-score of 2.31 is within this range
MVRV > 3.5: Overheated zone, high correction risk
- Peak in October 2025 was approximately 3.8

③ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

November 2025 Situation:

Adjusted SOPR recorded 1.03
Slightly above 1.0 level, market is generally in equilibrium state

Current level: Approximately 0.98-1.03 (estimated November 20, 2025)

Judgment Criteria:

SOPR < 1.0: Selling at loss occurring on average
- Possibility of capitulation stage
- Bottom confirmed if SOPR stably exceeds 1.0
SOPR stable around 1.0: Break-even point, market equilibrium state
- Current 1.03 is relatively sound level
- Sign of bottom consolidation completion if this state continues for 1+ weeks
SOPR > 1.05: Profit-taking dominant
- Pattern consistently observed in uptrend phases

8.1.3 Monitoring Correlation with Macroeconomic Indicators

① US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Current level: Approximately 4.3-4.5% (estimated November 2025)

Impact Thresholds on Bitcoin:

Yield below 4.0%: Favorable environment for Bitcoin
- Accelerated capital inflows to risk assets
- Upward pressure on Bitcoin price
Yield 4.0-4.5%: Neutral environment
- Current level, Bitcoin fluctuates based on other factors
- Limited impact from fluctuations within this range
Yield 4.5-5.0%: Headwind for Bitcoin
- Accelerated capital shift to safe assets
- Strengthening downward pressure on Bitcoin price
Yield above 5.0%: Strong downward pressure
- In past cases, 10-15% additional decline
- Current probability of reaching this level approximately 20%

Monitoring Points:

When weekly yield change is 0.2%+, significant impact on Bitcoin price
Particularly cautious during rapid yield changes after Fed statements

② Correlation with S&P 500 Index

Current 30-day correlation coefficient: Approximately 0.65 (estimated November 2025)

Judgment Criteria:

Correlation coefficient 0.7+: Strong correlation state
- Stock market trends strongly determine Bitcoin price
- Maximum impact from risk-on/off
Correlation coefficient 0.4-0.7: Moderate correlation
- Current situation, stock market influence is important but not absolute
- Can fluctuate on independent factors
Correlation coefficient below 0.4: Independent movements
- Bitcoin-specific factors are dominant
- Internal factors like halving effects prevail

Practical Application:

When S&P 500 declines 2%+ daily, 80% probability Bitcoin reacts in same direction
After S&P 500 bottom confirmation, Bitcoin tends to bottom 1-2 weeks later

③ VIX Index (Fear Index) and Volatility

November 2025 Volatility Situation:

Volmex Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) exceeded 42% in late October, recording highest level in 2.5 months
High volatility environment suggests heightened market uncertainty
November flash crash also occurred under this environment

Current VIX level: Estimated 18-22 (November 2025)

Impact on Bitcoin:

VIX below 15: Risk-on environment
- Increased capital inflows to Bitcoin
- Favorable environment for bull market
VIX 15-25: Neutral volatility
- Current level, Bitcoin depends on other factors
- Direction difficult to determine
VIX 25-35: Alert level
- Risk aversion strengthens
- Downward pressure on Bitcoin
VIX above 35: Panic level
- Capital flight from all risk assets
- High possibility of Bitcoin sharp decline

Practical Judgment:

When VIX rises 5+ points weekly, consider reducing Bitcoin positions
Phase when VIX declines from 30 to 20 is good opportunity to buy more Bitcoin
Monitor Bitcoin-specific volatility index (BVIV) in conjunction

8.1.4 Sentiment Indicators

① Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Current level: Estimated 25-35 (Fear territory, November 20, 2025)

Judgment Criteria:

0-25 (Extreme Fear): Extreme pessimism
- Historically the best buying opportunity
- Average score of 15 at past major bottoms
- Possibly approached this level immediately after November flash crash
25-45 (Fear): Pessimism dominant
- Corresponds to current level
- Monitor for transition to Extreme Fear
45-55 (Neutral): Neutral
- Direction unclear, wait-and-see recommended
55-75 (Greed): Optimism dominant
- Normal range for bull market
- Consider gradual profit-taking
75-100 (Extreme Greed): Extreme optimism
- Warning signal of top zone
- Peak in October 2025 was 85-90

Practical Application:

Buy signal when index reaches below 20 then rebounds above 30
Sell signal when index falls below 70 from above 80
Focus on rapid decline in index during sudden changes like November flash crash

② Social Media Sentiment

Twitter Trend Score:

Negative tweets about Bitcoin exceed 70% of total
- Extreme pessimism, possibility of approaching bottom
- Currently monitoring situation after November flash crash
Positive tweets recover to 50%
- Sentiment improvement, early signal of upward reversal

Google Search Trends:

Searches for "Bitcoin crash" 3x+ more than "Bitcoin buy"
- Panic selling stage, bottom possibly near
- Possibly applicable during mid-November crash phase
Increase in searches for "Bitcoin price prediction"
- Market participant interest recovery, sign of rebound

8.2 Gradual Position Building and Adjustment Criteria

To respond to market uncertainty, a gradual approach is recommended rather than investing all at once. Particularly in high volatility environments like November 2025, cautious gradual investment is important.

8.2.1 Gradual Entry Strategy for New Investment

Phase 1: Initial Entry (25% of planned investment)

Execution Conditions (when 2 or more apply):

Bitcoin price clearly falls below $98,000 (reflecting November 2025 actual conditions)
RSI falls below 30
Crypto Fear & Greed Index falls below 25
On-chain indicators show 3%+ weekly outflows from exchanges

Execution Timing:

When above conditions apply for 2 consecutive days
Stabilization phase after sharp decline like flash crash
Time periods when price volatility temporarily calms (Tokyo morning hours, etc.)

Phase 2: Additional Investment (25% of planned investment, 50% cumulative)

Execution Conditions (when 3 or more apply):

Bitcoin price in $85,000-$90,000 range
RSI falls below 25
SOPR falls below 0.95 (strong capitulation)
MVRV ratio falls below 1.5
Volume halves after climax selling surge

Execution Timing:

Day after decline accompanied by large volume
When price slightly falls below previous day's low
After confirming rebound near 200-day moving average

Phase 3: Full Investment (30% of planned investment, 80% cumulative)

Execution Conditions (when 3 or more apply):

Bitcoin price rebounds 5%+ from bottom
RSI clearly exceeds 30, reaching 35+
50-day MA turns from decline to sideways
Recovers 200-day MA
Bitcoin outflows from exchanges increase for 2 consecutive weeks
Crypto Fear & Greed Index exceeds 30

Execution Timing:

Not initial momentum of rebound, but dip after rebound confirmation (during 2-3% correction)
Rest phase after rise accompanied by volume
After stably recovering $100,000 psychological line

Phase 4: Final Investment (20% of planned investment, 100% cumulative)

Execution Conditions (when 4 or more apply):

Bitcoin price clearly breaks above $105,000-$107,000 resistance zone
RSI exceeds 50
SOPR stable at 1.02+
50-day MA turns upward, forming golden cross with 200-day MA
Continued rise accompanied by volume
S&P 500 also in clear uptrend

Execution Timing:

During first 3-5% correction after breaking $107,000
Safe buying more after trend reversal confirmed
After volatility index (BVIV) declines below 35%

8.2.2 Management Criteria for Existing Positions

Conditions for Continued Holding (For Long-term Investors):

Maintain Bullish (Continue 100% holding):

Bitcoin price maintains above $105,000
Clearly above 200-day MA
MVRV ratio 2.0+
Within typical appreciation phase of halving cycle

Maintain Neutral (75% holding, 25% profit-taking or cash conversion):

Bitcoin price in $98,000-$105,000 range
- Actual level as of November 20, 2025
Trading near 200-day MA
RSI in 30-50 range
Market in high volatility state (BVIV above 40%)

Defensive (50% holding, 50% profit-taking or cash conversion):

Bitcoin price in $85,000-$98,000 range
Clearly below 200-day MA
- Situation applicable in mid-November
Death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) occurred
VIX exceeds 30

Significant Reduction (25% holding, 75% profit-taking or cash conversion):

Bitcoin price in $80,000-$85,000 range
Below all major MAs
MVRV ratio falls below 1.2
Macroeconomic environment significantly deteriorated (US 10-year yield above 5.5%, etc.)

Consider Full Exit (When risk avoidance is priority):

Bitcoin price falls below $77,000
Signs of fundamental change in market structure
However, long-term investors should avoid capitulation at historical major bottoms

8.2.3 Tactical Criteria for Short-term Traders

Precautions in November 2025 High Volatility Environment:

High risk of sudden changes like flash crashes
Set stop-losses wider than usual (around 7-10%)
Suppress leverage to half or less of normal

Day Trading/Swing Trading Judgment Criteria:

Conditions for Considering Short Position (profit from decline):

RSI clearly begins declining from 60+
Confirmed reversal at major resistance ($105,000-$107,000)
Rise stalling accompanied by volume decrease
Sharp VIX increase
Resistance near 200-day MA

Stop-loss Line:

When price rises 3-5% from entry price
Clear breakthrough of $107,000
Prioritize early exit when volatility surges

Conditions for Considering Long Position (profit from rise):

RSI begins rebounding from below 30
Clear rebound at major support ($98,000, $85,000)
Rise accompanied by volume increase
VIX decline
Recovery of 200-day MA

Stop-loss Line:

When price falls 3-5% from entry price
Clear break of major support
Mechanically cut losses during flash crash-like plunge

Profit-taking Guidelines:

Long: Gradually take profit at 7-10% gain
Short: Gradually take profit at 5-8% gain
Prioritize early profit-taking during unexpected surges/plunges
Execute profit-taking earlier in high volatility environments

8.3 Risk Management and Portfolio Allocation

8.3.1 Upper Limits for Bitcoin Allocation in Total Assets

Recommended allocation according to investor risk tolerance:

Conservative Investor (Risk-averse type):

Bitcoin allocation: 2-5% of total assets
Target: Near retirement, emphasizing stable income, wanting to avoid losses as much as possible
Characteristics: Within range that doesn't affect lifestyle even with large declines
Current situation: Maintain allocation even during decline phase, cautious with additional investment

Neutral Investor (Balanced type):

Bitcoin allocation: 5-15% of total assets
Target: Medium to long-term asset building period, moderate risk tolerance
Characteristics: Accept fluctuations while avoiding excessive concentration
Current situation: Maintain around 10-12%, gradual buying more during decline phase possible

Aggressive Investor (Risk-tolerant type):

Bitcoin allocation: 15-30% of total assets
Target: Young demographic, high income, long-term investment perspective
Characteristics: View high volatility as growth opportunity
Current situation: Maintain around 20%, judge decline as good opportunity to buy more

Speculative Investor (High-risk type):

Bitcoin allocation: 30%+ of total assets
Target: Rich in specialized knowledge, can fully accept losses
Caution: Over 50% of total assets not recommended
Current situation: Strict risk management and leverage avoidance essential

8.3.2 Warnings Regarding Leverage Use

Leverage Risk in Current Market Environment (November 20, 2025):

Leveraged trading is extremely dangerous in the high volatility environment of November 2025:

November 14 flash crash

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

Comprehensive Assessment of Current Market Situation

As of November 20, 2025, the Bitcoin market is judged to be in a transition period from late upward cycle correction phase to early downtrend. The following composite factors support this assessment:

1. Cyclical Positioning

Approximately 19 months elapsed since April 2024 halving
Historical pattern forms tops 12-18 months post-halving
Probability that October 6 high (approximately $126,000) is this cycle's top: 65%
Even if not the top, it is certain to be a major correction phase

2. Correction Severity Assessment

Current decline rate has reached approximately 30% ($126,000 → $88,522):

2017 cycle: Major corrections were 20-40%
2021 cycle: Major corrections were 30-56%
Current decline falls within medium to large-scale correction range
$1 trillion market cap loss is significant, but similar events occurred in past cycles

3. External Environment Assessment

Macroeconomic Factors (Current Situation):

US 10-year yield: 4.3-4.5% range (persistently high)
Receding Fed rate cut expectations confirmed
Tendency toward risk-off phase transition
Capital outflows from cryptocurrencies due to capital shift to AI investments

Structural Factors:

Institutional investor participation pace slowing
Completion of large-scale leverage position liquidation ($19 billion)
DAT company valuation premium contraction

4. Bottom Formation Progress

Current market is estimated to be positioned in mid to late stages of decline phase:

Major Support Level Analysis:
- First defense line: $85,000 (psychological threshold)
- Second defense line: $80,000 (psychological threshold)
- Final defense line: $77,424 (April 2025 low)
Expected period until bottom formation: 2-8 weeks
Predicted bottom range: $75,000-85,000 (neutral scenario)

Integrated Forecast Scenarios for Next 6 Months

Final assessment of the three scenarios presented in this report, incorporating latest information and composite analysis:

Scenario	Realization Probability	May 2026 Price Range	Key Conditions
Pessimistic Scenario	30%	$65,000-75,000	US Treasury yield above 5%, entering recession
Neutral Scenario	50%	$75,000-95,000	Status quo maintained, gradual economic slowdown
Optimistic Scenario	20%	$100,000-120,000	Early Fed rate cuts, risk-on revival

Most Likely Development (Neutral Scenario Details):

December 2025 ~ January 2026 (Bottom Formation Period):
- Bottom formation at $75,000-85,000
- Volatility remains high (5-10% daily fluctuation)
- Signs of volume decrease and investor fatigue
February ~ March 2026 (Sideways/Early Recovery):
- Range-bound market of $75,000-90,000
- Repeated intermittent upward attempts and failures
- Institutional investors begin selective buying back
April ~ May 2026 (Gradual Rise):
- Recovery to $85,000-95,000
- Foundation building for next cycle
- However, reclaiming previous high ($126,000) difficult within 2026

Risk Factors and Uncertainties

The following significant uncertainties exist in this forecast:

Upside Risks (20% probability):

Unexpected Fed policy pivot (early rate cuts)
Resumption of large-scale institutional investor entry
Surge in capital inflows to cryptocurrency ETFs
"Digital gold" demand from geopolitical crises

Downside Risks (30% probability):

US economic hard landing
Unexpected strengthening of cryptocurrency regulation
Failure of major exchanges/DAT companies
Panic selling from technical break below $77,424

Unexpected Scenarios (low probability but should monitor):

New financial crisis (systemic risk)
Security concerns from quantum computing
Rapid adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)
Complete ban on cryptocurrencies by major countries

Recommendations

Specific Action Plans by Investor Type

A. Long-term Investors (Holding period 2+ years)

Basic Policy: Believe in long-term cycle, consider strategic accumulation

Specific Recommendations:

Gradual Buying More Strategy (Application of Dollar-Cost Averaging)

- Upon reaching $85,000: Deploy 10% of portfolio
- Upon reaching $80,000: Deploy additional 15%
- Upon reaching $75,000: Deploy additional 15%
- When breaking below $70,000: Deploy remaining 10% (maximum utilization)

Psychological Preparation:
- Assume further decline (up to 40-50%) and secure mental margin
- Don't expect complete recovery within 2026, look toward 2027 onward
- Never use leverage
Rebalancing:
- Limit Bitcoin ratio in overall portfolio to 10-20%
- Maintain balance with stocks, bonds, commodities

Expected Profit: 50-150% return by end of 2027 (from current price)

B. Medium-term Investors (Holding period 6 months to 2 years)

Basic Policy: Carefully identify bottom, thoroughly implement risk management

Specific Recommendations:

Wait and Observe (Current ~ January 2026):
- Current position: Reduce holdings to 50% or less (if not already done)
- Wait for bottom formation signals (refer to "Turning Point Checklist" below)
- Don't rush to buy ("Don't catch a falling knife")
Selective Entry (February ~ March 2026):
- After bottom confirmation around $75,000, build 25% position
- Additional investment after confirming 3-month range formation
Set Profit-taking Rules:
- Upon reaching $100,000: Take profit on 30%
- Upon reaching $110,000: Take profit on additional 30%
- Hold remaining 40% until next cycle

Expected Profit: 0-30% return by end of 2026 (emphasizing risk management)

C. Short-term Traders (Holding period several days to months)

Basic Policy: Current market is unsuitable for short-term trading

Specific Recommendations:

Current Actions (November ~ December 2025):
- Basically recommend position reduction
- Volatility extremely high and unpredictable
- Day trading/swing trading for advanced traders only
Tactics When Taking Risk:
- Reduce position size to 30-50% of normal
- Strictly set stop-loss (within 5% of entry price)
- Leverage maximum 2x (recommended 1x)
Alternative Strategies:
- Hedging through options trading (buying puts)
- Wait until stable market environment returns
- Temporary shift to other asset classes

Risk Warning: Period with extremely high probability of incurring large losses in short-term trading

D. Those Considering New Entry

Basic Policy: Carefully learn the market, start small-scale

Specific Recommendations:

Set Education Period (November 2025 ~ January 2026):
- Acquire fundamental knowledge including this report
- Practice trading with demo account
- Begin practice with small amount (5-10% of planned investment)
Timing of Initial Investment:
- Recommended timing: After bottom formation confirmation (February 2026 onward)
- Initial investment amount: 20-30% of total planned investment
- Period to avoid: Impulsive entry during current crash phase
Long-term Investment Plan:
- Investment premised on minimum 2-year holding
- Average acquisition cost leveling through monthly installment investment
- Position not only Bitcoin but as part of diversified investment

Identifying Turning Points: Practical Checklist

For investment decisions, recommend weekly confirmation of the following checklist:

Level 1: Confirming Bottom Formation (8 items)

Price: Trading in $75,000-80,000 range for 3+ weeks
Volume: Decreased to 50% or less of recent high (capitulation ended)
Volatility: Daily fluctuation rate declined to 3% or less
Liquidation amount: 24-hour liquidation amount decreased to below $500 million
Exchange inflows: Net Bitcoin inflows to exchanges decreasing or turning to outflows
Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index escapes "Extreme Fear (0-25)"
News: No new major negative factors for 3+ weeks
Technical: Daily RSI recovers above 30, MACD divergence occurs

Assessment: "High possibility of bottom formation" when 6+ items achieved → Consider cautious entry

Level 2: Confirming Uptrend Reversal (8 items)

Price: Breaks above important downtrend line (declining high line)
Moving average: Above 50-day moving average, approaching 200-day line
New high: Clearly breaks above recent 1-month high
Volume: Volume increases during uptrend phase (strength of buying pressure)
On-chain data: Whale accumulation (large holder buying) observed
ETF capital inflows: Net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs positive for 3 consecutive weeks
Macro environment: US 10-year yield declines below 4.0%, or Fed rate cut expectations
Altcoins: Major altcoins like Ethereum also show similar rebounds

Assessment: "Uptrend reversal" when 6+ items achieved → Consider aggressive additional investment

Level 3: Alert for Top Formation (Early Warning System)

Price: 30%+ surge in short period (2-4 weeks)
Volume: Sharp decrease after sharp volume increase (buying exhaustion)
Funding rate: Perpetual futures funding rate above 0.1% (overheating)
Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Greed (75-100)"
Media: Surge in Bitcoin praise articles in mainstream media
New entry: Surge in new account openings at exchanges

Recommendations

Specific Action Plans by Investor Type

A. Long-term Investors (Holding period 2+ years)

Basic Policy: Believe in long-term cycle, consider strategic accumulation

Specific Recommendations:

Gradual Buying More Strategy (Application of Dollar-Cost Averaging)

- Upon reaching $85,000: Deploy 10% of portfolio
- Upon reaching $80,000: Deploy additional 15%
- Upon reaching $75,000: Deploy additional 15%
- When breaking below $70,000: Deploy remaining 10% (maximum utilization)

Psychological Preparation:
- Assume further decline (up to 40-50%) and secure mental margin
- Don't expect complete recovery within 2026, look toward 2027 onward
- Never use leverage
Rebalancing:
- Limit Bitcoin ratio in overall portfolio to 10-20%
- Maintain balance with stocks, bonds, commodities

Expected Profit: 50-150% return by end of 2027 (from current price)

B. Medium-term Investors (Holding period 6 months to 2 years)

Basic Policy: Carefully identify bottom, thoroughly implement risk management

Specific Recommendations:

Wait and Observe (Current ~ January 2026):
- Current position: Reduce holdings to 50% or less (if not already done)
- Wait for bottom formation signals (refer to "Turning Point Checklist" below)
- Don't rush to buy ("Don't catch a falling knife")
Selective Entry (February ~ March 2026):
- After bottom confirmation around $75,000, build 25% position
- Additional investment after confirming 3-month range formation
Set Profit-taking Rules:
- Upon reaching $100,000: Take profit on 30%
- Upon reaching $110,000: Take profit on additional 30%
- Hold remaining 40% until next cycle

Expected Profit: 0-30% return by end of 2026 (emphasizing risk management)

C. Short-term Traders (Holding period several days to months)

Basic Policy: Current market is unsuitable for short-term trading

Specific Recommendations:

Current Actions (November ~ December 2025):
- Basically recommend position reduction
- Volatility extremely high and unpredictable
- Day trading/swing trading for advanced traders only
Tactics When Taking Risk:
- Reduce position size to 30-50% of normal
- Strictly set stop-loss (within 5% of entry price)
- Leverage maximum 2x (recommended 1x)
Alternative Strategies:
- Hedging through options trading (buying puts)
- Wait until stable market environment returns
- Temporary shift to other asset classes

Risk Warning: Period with extremely high probability of incurring large losses in short-term trading

D. Those Considering New Entry

Basic Policy: Carefully learn the market, start small-scale

Specific Recommendations:

Set Education Period (November 2025 ~ January 2026):
- Acquire fundamental knowledge including this report
- Practice trading with demo account
- Begin practice with small amount (5-10% of planned investment)
Timing of Initial Investment:
- Recommended timing: After bottom formation confirmation (February 2026 onward)
- Initial investment amount: 20-30% of total planned investment
- Period to avoid: Impulsive entry during current crash phase
Long-term Investment Plan:
- Investment premised on minimum 2-year holding
- Average acquisition cost leveling through monthly installment investment
- Position not only Bitcoin but as part of diversified investment

Identifying Turning Points: Practical Checklist

For investment decisions, recommend weekly confirmation of the following checklist:

Level 1: Confirming Bottom Formation (8 items)

Price: Trading in $75,000-80,000 range for 3+ weeks
Volume: Decreased to 50% or less of recent high (capitulation ended)
Volatility: Daily fluctuation rate declined to 3% or less
Liquidation amount: 24-hour liquidation amount decreased to below $500 million
Exchange inflows: Net Bitcoin inflows to exchanges decreasing or turning to outflows
Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index escapes "Extreme Fear (0-25)"
News: No new major negative factors for 3+ weeks
Technical: Daily RSI recovers above 30, MACD divergence occurs

Assessment: "High possibility of bottom formation" when 6+ items achieved → Consider cautious entry

Level 2: Confirming Uptrend Reversal (8 items)

Price: Breaks above important downtrend line (declining high line)
Moving average: Above 50-day moving average, approaching 200-day line
New high: Clearly breaks above recent 1-month high
Volume: Volume increases during uptrend phase (strength of buying pressure)
On-chain data: Whale accumulation (large holder buying) observed
ETF capital inflows: Net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs positive for 3 consecutive weeks
Macro environment: US 10-year yield declines below 4.0%, or Fed rate cut expectations
Altcoins: Major altcoins like Ethereum also show similar rebounds

Assessment: "Uptrend reversal" when 6+ items achieved → Consider aggressive additional investment

Level 3: Alert for Top Formation (Early Warning System)

Price: 30%+ surge in short period (2-4 weeks)
Volume: Sharp decrease after sharp volume increase (buying exhaustion)
Funding rate: Perpetual futures funding rate above 0.1% (overheating)
Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Greed (75-100)"
Media: Surge in Bitcoin praise articles in mainstream media
New entry: Surge in new account openings at exchanges
Technical: Weekly RSI

Disclaimer

Important Legal Notice

THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

1. Not Investment Advice

This document and all analyses contained herein do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. The author(s) and publisher(s) of this document are not registered as investment advisors under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act of Japan (金融商品取引法) or any other applicable securities laws.

2. No Guarantee of Future Performance

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical data, backtesting results, and hypothetical scenarios presented in this document do not guarantee future investment performance.
All forecasts, predictions, and scenarios are speculative in nature and based on assumptions that may not materialize. Actual market conditions may differ materially from those presented.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Bitcoin and other digital assets can experience extreme price fluctuations, including total loss of value.

3. Risk Warnings

INVESTING IN CRYPTOCURRENCIES INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS

Risks include but are not limited to:

Total loss of capital: Digital assets can lose 100% of their value
Extreme volatility: Daily price swings of 10-50% are possible
Regulatory risk: Government actions may severely restrict or prohibit cryptocurrency trading
Cybersecurity risk: Hacking, theft, and technical failures
Liquidity risk: Inability to sell assets at desired prices
Counterparty risk: Exchange failures, custodian insolvency
Operational risk: Smart contract bugs, network failures
Tax implications: Complex and evolving tax treatment

4. Your Responsibility

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. No one else can or will be held responsible for losses you may incur.
Conduct your own due diligence and consult with qualified legal, tax, and financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
Only invest funds you can afford to lose entirely without affecting your financial well-being or lifestyle.
This document does not take into account your individual financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance.

5. No Accuracy Guarantee

Information may be incomplete, inaccurate, or outdated. While efforts have been made to provide accurate information, we make no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information presented.
Market conditions change rapidly. Information that was accurate at the time of writing may become obsolete or incorrect.
Third-party data sources may contain errors. We are not responsible for inaccuracies in data obtained from external sources.

6. No Endorsement

References to specific cryptocurrencies, exchanges, products, or services do not constitute endorsements or recommendations.
No buy, sell, or hold recommendations are being made. Any mention of price levels or trading strategies is for illustrative purposes only.

7. Leverage and Derivatives Warning

LEVERAGED TRADING IS EXTREMELY RISKY

Leverage can magnify losses as well as gains
You can lose more than your initial investment
Liquidation can occur rapidly in volatile markets
Not suitable for inexperienced investors

8. Conflicts of Interest

The author(s) may hold positions in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies discussed in this document. Such holdings may create conflicts of interest.

9. Jurisdiction and Compliance

This document may not be suitable for distribution in all jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.
Japanese residents: Please be aware of tax obligations under Japanese law regarding cryptocurrency transactions.

本書は、すべての法域での配布に適さない可能性があります。適用される法令の遵守はご自身の責任です。

10. Forward-Looking Statements

This document contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These statements should not be regarded as representations that objectives will be achieved.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

BY READING THIS DOCUMENT, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT:

You have read and understood this disclaimer in its entirety
You will not rely solely on this document for investment decisions
You understand the high-risk nature of cryptocurrency investments
You will seek professional advice appropriate to your circumstances
You will not hold the author(s), publisher(s), or distributors liable for any losses

Bitcoin Market Outlook After the Sharp Decline 2025-2026: Systematic Analysis and Implications

Executive Summary

1. Current Situation Assessment: Organization of Observed Facts

1.1 Market Conditions as of November 20, 2025

1.1.1 Quantitative Assessment of Price Movements

1.1.2 Structural Market Changes

1.1.3 Relative Performance of Ethereum

1.2 Structural Factors Behind the Sharp Decline

1.2.1 Collapse of the "Two Pillars" Supporting the Bull Market

1.2.2 Correlation with AI-Related Sectors

1.2.3 Qualitative Assessment of Investor Psychology

1.2.4 Spillover Effects to Related Companies

1.3 Current Position in the Decline Phase

1.3.1 Expert Assessment of Current Situation

1.3.2 Technical Price Level Assessment

1.3.3 Short-term Factors Serving as Recovery Triggers

1.4 Summary of Observed Facts and Bridge to Next Chapter

1.4.1 Confirmed Objective Facts

1.4.2 Questions Raised by These Observed Facts

1.4.3 What Readers Should Understand at This Point

References

2. Cyclical Analysis: Extraction of Recurring Patterns

2.1 Basic Concepts of Bitcoin Price Cyclicality

2.1.1 Importance of Cyclical Analysis

2.1.2 Major Cyclical Patterns

2.2 Past Representative Crash Cases and Subsequent Trends

2.2.1 Case 1: May 2021 Crash (China Shock)

2.2.2 Case 2: June 2022 Crash (Luna Shock & Monetary Tightening)

2.2.3 Case 3: August 2024 Correction (Bank of Japan Shock)

2.2.4 Case 4: November 2025 Crash (Currently Ongoing)

2.3 Typology and Characteristics of Crash Patterns

2.3.1 Classification of Crash Types

2.3.2 Criteria for Distinguishing Each Type

2.3.3 Provisional Classification of November 2025 Crash

2.4 Prediction Model for Time Until Bottoming

2.4.1 Statistical Estimation from Past Cases

2.4.2 Application to Current Situation

2.4.3 Probability Distribution of Time Series Forecast

2.5 Analysis of Period from Bottom to Uptrend Transition

2.5.1 Standard Progression from Bottom Confirmation to New High

2.5.2 Details of Gradual Recovery Process

2.5.3 Application to November 2025 Crash

2.6 Impact of Seasonal Patterns

2.6.1 Annual Seasonal Trends

2.6.2 Characteristics of Current Period (November)

2.6.3 Future Seasonal Outlook

2.7 Key Lessons from Cyclical Analysis

2.7.1 Distinguishing Certainty from Uncertainty

2.7.2 Mindset Investors Should Adopt

2.7.3 Bridge to Next Chapter

3. Turning Point Identification: Criteria for State Transitions

3.1 Definition and Classification of Market Reversals

3.1.1 Three Types of Turning Points

3.1.2 Risk of Misidentification

3.2 Key Points for Identifying Top Formation (End of Uptrend)

3.2.1 Identification by Price Patterns

3.2.2 Volume and On-Chain Indicators

3.2.3 Market Sentiment Indicators

3.2.4 Analysis of October 2025 Top Formation

3.3 Key Points for Identifying Bottom Formation (End of Downtrend)

3.3.1 Identification by Price Patterns

3.3.2 Panic Selling Indicators

3.3.3 Three-Stage Bottom Confirmation Process

3.3.4 Bottom Signals Based on On-Chain Indicators

3.3.5 Temporal Patterns of Bottom Formation

3.3.6 Bottom Assessment as of November 20, 2025

3.4 Determining Breakout from Sideways Market (Range)

3.4.1 Definition of Range-Bound Market

3.4.2 Determining Breakout Reliability

3.4.3 Predicting Breakout Direction

3.5 Turning Point Identification Using Technical Indicators

3.5.1 Golden Cross and Death Cross of Moving Averages

3.5.2 Overbought/Oversold Assessment Using RSI (Relative Strength Index)

3.5.3 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

3.5.4 Bollinger Bands

3.6 Integrated Assessment Framework for Multiple Indicators

3.6.1 Confidence Scoring System

3.6.2 Time-Series Monitoring Protocol

3.7 Turning Point Assessment as of November 20, 2025

3.7.1 Current Position Assessment